How the Parliament may look from 2004

Date: 21/11/02

By Dana Spinant

THE accession of 12 countries to the EU between 2004 and 2007 will shift the balance of power within the European Parliament, leaving small political groups seriously disadvantaged.

The Greens and Europe of Democracies and Diversities (EDD) groups risk extinction unless they receive an injection of members from the new countries.

Nevertheless, their leaders are putting a brave face on things: 'I am confident that we will still have a group after enlargement,' EDD leader Jens-Peter Bonde said yesterday (20 November).

This week's plenary session at Strasbourg offered a fascinating glimpse of how the Parliament could look after enlargement.

President Pat Cox had asked each candidate country to send delegations of parliamentarians approximately equal to the number of MEPs they will have once they join the Union. The Czech Republic and Hungary were actually invited to send two extra MPs, and Malta one more, because the European Parliament believes they will be under-represented in the new assembly according to their population size.

The Czechs and Hungary are being given only 20 members each and Malta five.

Turkey didn't send any representatives; there was a row over whether its delegation would have speaking rights and, in any event, many of those earmarked to come from the EU-Turkey joint parliamentary committee lost their seats in the recent Turkish election.

Although the small groups may lose out in 2004, a scan of the Strasbourg hemicycle showed that the balance between the two largest political parties is unlikely to change dramatically after enlargement.

Despite a large addition of socialists from candidate countries, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) is set to remain the largest group.

If enlargement happened today, the Socialists (PES) would gain 78 new members compared to 63 for the EPP. Overall, however, the EPP would have 299 seats - 30 more than the Socialists.

But, of course, anything could happen in the next poll.

Enrique Barón Crespo, PES chairman, said he expected the current member states to elect more MEPs from the Left.

However, enlargement may be a challenge for the Greens. During this week's enlarged session, there were only two Greens among the candidate countries' groups.

'Green parties are rich countries' parties; poorer countries do not bother that much with ecology,' a Parliament official commented.

If they do not get more members from the new countries, the Greens run the risk of not having enough MEPs, or may represent an insufficient number of EU countries, to form a parliamentary group. The EDD is in a similar position, parliamentary officials say.

Under the Parliament's rules, speaking time, funding and administrative support is distributed to political groups according to their membership.

Non-affiliated members have problems in obtaining such resources.

• Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Danish prime minister, announced in Strasbourg that the first ten candidate countries will join the Union on 1 May 2004, and not on 1 January, as many candidates had hoped.

Rasmussen also confirmed that the candidate countries will take part as full members in the intergovernmental conference due to meet in late 2003.

This will discuss the constitutional treaty currently being drafted by the Convention on the future of the EU and the candidates will be given the same veto rights as current members on any changes the IGC recommends.

Article predicts that the accession of 12 countries to the EU between 2004 and 2007 will shift the balance of power within the European Parliament, leaving small political groups seriously disadvantaged.