Health expenditure scenarios in the new Member States: country report on Bulgaria

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The expenditures on health care in the new member countries from Central and Eastern Europe have never been based on the model of interdependence of socio-economic factors of the health state and the changes in the structure of population. The development of long-term scenarios here is based on the analysis of a previous study carried out within WPII “Health and Morbidity in the Accession Countries” and thus the health care expenditures are interrelated with the status of health of the nation. Like in the case of the other CEE countries included in the WPIX (Estonia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) for the purpose of the scenarios calculations the model of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) Financial and Actuarial Service was used. The main objective of this report is to describe the interrelations between these three groups of indicators related to the health care expenditure in Bulgaria for 2003 taken as a base year and further to produce a long-term projections up to 2050, using an intermediary control (target) year 2025. The outlined projections can be useful for the future health care and social policy in Bulgaria.