Greece and Turkey. Mr Erdogan’s Greek friend

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Series Details No.8388, 14.8.04
Publication Date 14/08/2004
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Chumminess will help, but not suffice, if foes are to turn into partners

COSTAS KARAMANLIS, the Greek prime minister, will have his work cut out playing host to the world's past and present leaders in a gleaming, refurbished Athens over the next couple of weeks. Some 60 are due to make an appearance at the Olympics, including America's George Bush senior and three leaders of countries that are keen to stage the 2012 games: France's Jacques Chirac, Britain's Tony Blair and Vladimir Putin of Russia. Protocol may dictate otherwise, but most Greeks know that the real guest of honour will be Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a reformist (and moderately Islamist) Turkish prime minister whose personal friendship with Mr Karamanlis has blossomed.

Mr Erdogan's original plan was to attend the Olympic opening ceremony and return to Athens later this month to see Sureyya Ayhan, Turkey's leading athlete, run in the women's 1,500-metres contest. But Ms Ayhan, a favourite for a medal, has pulled out, claiming injury, though rumours are rife of a doping scandal. Mr Erdogan, an avid sports fan, may decide to watch the weightlifting instead; Turkey's Halil Mutlu is a strong contender. But if Greece repeats its performance at the Euro 2004 tournament, and reaches the finals of the soccer competition, expect Mr Erdogan to sit next to Mr Karamanlis, who loves football, for the big match.

The flourishing personal relationship between the Greek and Turkish prime ministers also has some serious content. Every social occasion - such as Mr Karamanlis's visit to Istanbul last month to act as a chief witness at the wedding of Mr Erdogan's daughter Esra - gives a chance for a political exchange. Greece has been a strong supporter of Turkey's campaign to win a date from the European Union in December for the start of accession negotiations. Greek and Turkish diplomats also hold regular talking sessions in Athens and Ankara on a range of long-running disputes over sovereignty in the Aegean.

The talks, hamstrung by legal debates about old treaties, go nowhere and are not expected to yield progress soon. But once Turkey is on the road, however long, to EU membership, some of the Aegean disputes may no longer be relevant. Others, such as those over territorial waters, may turn out to be easier to address in a European political framework.

On the thorny old question of Cyprus, which always lurks in the background, changes are afoot this autumn, and the two prime ministers will need to draw on the reserve of goodwill they have built up. The EU stands poised to reduce the isolation of the Turkish-Cypriots, whose enclave in the north of their disputed island is recognised only by Turkey. Last week the European Commission approved 2.5m ($3m) to remove landmines in Cyprus, as part of a broad effort to build confidence between the island's outcast north and its Greek-dominated, internationally-recognised south. However, approval of a 259m aid package for the Turkish-Cypriots has been delayed until next month because of a threatened veto by the Greek-Cypriot authorities. They were admitted to the Union in May, along with nine other new governments, although Greek Cypriots had rejected a UN reunification plan under which the whole island would have enjoyed the Union's benefits. As a result, the Turkish-Cypriots were left in the cold, although they backed the plan.

With the support of Greece's representatives in Brussels, the Greek-Cypriots have blocked attempts to open airports in the north to direct commercial flights - on the ground that this would give the Turkish-Cypriots less reason to join up, eventually, with their neighbours to the south.

This sort of thing makes Greek-Turkish reconciliation harder to sustain. For now, it seems, Mr Karamanlis and Mr Erdogan are not letting Cyprus cast a shadow over their comradeship. Once the games are over, though, the going will be tougher.

The friendship between the Prime Ministers of Greece and Turkey is helping the rapprochement between the two countries, but there are still challenges, not least the issue of Cyprus.

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