Good or bad – history defines Europe

Sixteen years have passed since the Cold War ended - years in which a vast amount has happened. Not least in Europe, where borders have been massively redrawn, economies radically changed, population flows reordered and, ultimately, through the immense force of enlargement - the EU has emerged as a dominant economic and, by default, political bloc.

Sixteen years is an eternity in modern media reality. In the intense focus on constant developments - for these are the ones that fill blogs, newspapers, television and computer screens - process becomes the main issue rather than outcome. As a result it is the mechanics of change rather than the forces of history which come to the fore. But the two are not interchangeable, as is now becoming evident.

In the past few years the EU has absorbed nearly all of the European former Soviet states and developed a "collegiate" relationship with Russia. Both are undoubted achievements, but it can also no longer be doubted that both are a triumph of mechanisms over history. The ancient antagonisms between western Europe and Russia are becoming more and more evident, as are the tensions between the central and western European states: the ‘new’ and ‘old’ member states.

The honeymoon between Europe and Russia, if it ever existed, was doomed first by the tensions that underlay the Europe-Russia relationship long before the Cold War and then by the emergence of energy concerns as the dominant issue of the age. Russia has always aspired to be oriented towards the west, but has always been obsessed with shoring up its power and dominance in Europe, too. In addition, it has never had a tradition or history of democracy or a market economy. Losing the Cold War did not resolve these deeply embedded issues. Attempts made by the EU and the US to gloss them over in fancy rhetoric of freedom and democracy, while doling out vast wads of cash in the mechanisms of ‘democratisation’ have also faltered.

Over time these flaws might have been amended and some return on the western investment might have become apparent, but instead energy entered the equation: while the west was paying good money for good causes, the price of the western way of life, as dependent on oil and gas, has been rapidly rising. Russia, the main supplier of EU energy, has focused exclusively on this fact not only to fill its coffers, but also to reassert itself as a power - one in both dialogue and tension with western Europe. In other words, it has reverted to its historical model, sweeping aside all the careful mechanisms the EU has put in place - a fact made blatantly obvious by President Vladimir Putin’s behaviour at the Lahti meeting.

The new EU member states have also not discarded their history - and are slowly making this obvious to the old member states. While open to market economies and judicial reform, the history of each state and its perspective of Europe is deeply embedded in bygone times. This is apparent in many ways, but was keenly on show in the World Economic Forum held recently in Krynica, Poland. It was a vast and colourful event of thousands, with the prominent presence of many of the top multinationals, consultancies and law firms - from their east European offices as well as beyond. Everyone walked the walk and talked the talk - but two subtexts were possibly more significant.

The first was Russia: evident everywhere in the meeting, asserting itself strongly and getting strong responses from the new member states. The second was the long memory of many from central Europe, still angry at the west for leaving them to suffer under the Soviets for 50 years. Some of these memories are now becoming openly resurgent in Poland and Hungary.

Both are historical debates, outside the modern mechanism of the EU - yet they are the ones that will define the success of the Union. One need not be a Marxist to know that history has always defined Europe - and it should therefore be part of the European Security and Defence Policy.

• Ilana Bet-El is an academic, author and policy adviser based in Brussels.

Sixteen years have passed since the Cold War ended - years in which a vast amount has happened. Not least in Europe, where borders have been massively redrawn, economies radically changed, population flows reordered and, ultimately, through the immense force of enlargement - the EU has emerged as a dominant economic and, by default, political bloc.