Good Cop or Bad Cop? Russian Foreign Policy in the New Putin Era

Russian foreign policy in the new Putin-era is not going to fundamentally differ from the one pursued under Dmitry Medvedev. In the post-Soviet region the same integrationist policies — both economic and security-related — are likely to continue, aimed at maintaining and increasing the formal and informal influence of the Russian Federation, only with growing intensity. Concerning the West, Russian interests are likely to become increasingly divergent. Deepening and widening the cooperation with the EU is clearly in the interest of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, existing tensions in the U.S.-Russia relationship are unlikely to decrease, while a key field of common interest is going to disappear following the Allied withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014.