Gonzalez keeps the public guessing about his future

Date: 14/12/1995

By Pedro Lopez de Pablo

FELIPE Gonzalez will reveal next week whether he intends to throw in the towel or continue to lead his party as he prepares for the Spanish general election scheduled for March 1996.

The answer will be unveiled at the meeting of the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) executive committee on 18 December, two days after Spain's presidency of the EU reaches its climax at this weekend's summit in Madrid.

Harassed by the press as he toured EU capitals to prepare for the summit, Gonzalez made many public statements, but all of them non-committal. His ambiguity has only served to feed public doubts about his future.

In Helsinki, one of the last stops on his European tour, Gonzalez summed up his 13 years as head of government in what seemed like an 'adieu'. But later he joked about the various interpretations that were attached to his words.

The odds on him staying on shortened this week when outgoing Spanish Foreign Minister Javier Solana, the newly-appointed secretary-general of NATO, said he “believed” Gonzalez would run in next year's elections.

Retirement seemed a more likely prospect for Gonzalez before he lost Solana to the NATO post. The collapse of the succession plan Gonzalez had mapped out for Solana last summer has caused the prime minister, in his words, “a personal and political problem”.

Whether for the sake of convenience or loyalty, most PSOE members and all government members are putting pressure on Gonzalez to lead the party list for the fifth time next March.

After 20 years of party leadership, Gonzalez continues to be the strongest candidate.

At PSOE headquarters, a poll is circulating that puts the party only six points behind the opposition Partido Popular (PP). That slight difference could easily be turned around during an electoral campaign, even despite the corruption cases plaguing the government.

There is no doubt that if Gonzalez stays on, he will be able to exploit the successes of Spain's EU presidency during the campaign. They have helped raise his image in international opinion, as has Solana's nomination to NATO.

Inside the PSOE, only a minority group of old socialists and intellectuals are seeking a renovation of the party, and demanding that Gonzalez leaves.

But if he does, who will take over? In recent days, 12 possible successors have been cited, including four ministers, three regional party directors, two mayors, the Socialist leader in Congress, European Commissioner Manuel Marín and MEP Fernando Morán.

Apart from Morán, who signed the letter asking Gonzalez to step down and who has declared his own candidacy, all the others swear that Gonzalez will run again, including the most ambitious of all the potential candidates, Transport Minister José Borrell - perhaps because each one knows he could not take over the party leadership without the blessing of Gonzalez.

Given this scenario, it is hardly surprising that the prime minister is besieged by Hamlet-like doubts. “Am I the problem or the solution?” he asked recently. The curtain will fall on this melodrama next week.