Author (Person) | Gaub, Florence |
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Author (Corporate) | European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), European Union Institute for Security Studies |
Publication Date | April 2019 |
ISBN | 978-92-76-01898-8 |
Content Type | Report |
Summary: For something as unknown as the future, it appears to have become surprisingly predictable. A Google search of ‘future 2030’ yields more than 97 million results, all more or less claiming similar things: that 2030 will see a more connected, yet fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics. The future, while overall negative, appears to be a rather certain place. This illusion of definitiveness is created by two dynamics: first, the pessimistic tone that runs through the vast majority of foresight reports. This is a common feature when it comes to future thinking, with one study showing that all studies undertaken on the future over the last 70 years have one thing in common; pessimism. The reason for this is simple: although both optimism and pessimism are natural human dispositions, the latter is more prevalent by far. Humans are, genetically speaking, biased towards the negative – some studies even indicate that this is particularly the case for Europeans. Second, pessimism in foresight is encouraged by the grave air that surrounds it: in general, negative statements are given more attention than positive ones. That said, more pessimism in foresight does not equal greater accuracy, as one study shows. |
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Source Link |
Link to Main Source
https://ec.europa.eu/knowledge4policy/publication/espas-report-2019-global-trends-2030_en
Alternative sources
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Subject Categories | Politics and International Relations |
Subject Tags | Challenges facing the European Union [EU] |
International Organisations | European Union [EU] |