Global Terrorism and Nuclear Proliferation after 9/11

The two main routes by which a terrorist group could acquire a nuclear weapon are: (1) transfer, that is, the deliberate hand off of a weapon from a nuclear state to a terrorist group; and (2) leakage, an unauthorised transfer or theft of a weapon from an inadequately secured site. Although after 9/11 the nightmare scenario focused on the possible collaboration between ‘rogue states’ and terrorist groups, this paper argues that, in fact, the more likely route by which terrorists might gain access to nuclear or other WMD capabilities is through the accidental leakage (that is, theft) of dangerous materials and technologies from inadequately-secured sites, primarily in Russia and Pakistan.