Germany’s opposition: Doubly divided

Date: 05/04/03

The conservatives are divided, over war in Iraq as well as economics

THE war in Iraq is dividing Germany's conservative opposition. It has traditionally been staunch in the Americans' favour. But Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrats' leader, is coming under fire from within her own party for her outspoken support of the American-led assault on Iraq. In contrast, Edmund Stoiber, the Bavarian premier and the conservatives' candidate for chancellor in last September's general election, is distancing himself from the war - and the Americans.

Life is not easy for the conservatives. For all the widespread disapproval of his government's social and economic policies - his Social Democrats and their trade-union friends were exchanging blows on that this week - on Iraq Germans are massively with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Over 80% of them oppose the war, including nearly three-quarters of conservative voters. As many do not believe it will lead to a lasting peace in the Middle East.

Anti-war feeling is particularly strong in Catholic-dominated Bavaria, where Mr Stoiber's Christian Social Union (CSU), the Christian Democrats' sister party, faces a state election next autumn. During the general-election campaign, Mr Stoiber spoke out forcefully against any attempt by the Americans to “go it alone” in Iraq, even suggesting that they should be denied the right to fly over German territory if they did. A few months ago, however, he sought to get more in synch with Mrs Merkel by calling on Germany to “stand by America's side, even in a military conflict”.

But more recently he has swung the other way again. Since the Americans invaded Iraq without winning a further mandate in the UN Security Council, he has sounded increasingly critical. The CSU is “upset” by a war it “did not want”, he says. “The allies will never be in a position to turn the military process into a political and economic success.” And though everything should be done to avert further damage to the transatlantic partnership, “not everything has to be approved of”.

Mrs Merkel, on the other hand, has become increasingly bold in backing the Americans. Even before war broke out, she had endorsed the final American ultimatum to Saddam Hussein. “War”, she said, “had become unavoidable. Not acting would have caused more damage.” It was out of the question, she said, for the Christian Democrats to remain neutral. They must “stand by America's side”, though she declines to say whether, had she been chancellor, she would have committed German troops to the battlefield.

Many of her colleagues think she has already gone too far. Peter Muller, the Christian Democratic premier of the Saarland, who is a former constitutional-court judge, says the war is illegal. Wolfgang Schauble, who speaks for the party on foreign policy, has called it a “big risk”. His predecessor, Karl Lamers, calls the American claim that Iraq posed a direct threat to the United States “nonsense”. The party's rank and file is perturbed. Many have resigned in protest.

Mrs Merkel knows she is taking a gamble. For the first time in six months, she has fallen behind Mr Schröder in the opinion polls. Her party, while still 13-17 points ahead of the ruling Social Democrats, is also losing ground. Many conservatives are worried. They remember the start of the 1970s when, against the wishes of the great majority of Germans, the Christian Democrats opposed Chancellor Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik - the policy of seeking a dialogue with communist regimes (especially the German one) to the east - and found themselves out of power for over a decade. That, they fear, could happen again. But, as a former East German, Mrs Merkel believes strongly in the transatlantic link and thinks her strategy will pay dividends in the long run. Among those who back her, some point out that letting the Americans put their missiles on German soil in the 1980s was unpopular too - but was vindicated over time.

The conservatives' internal rows over Iraq have been exacerbated by Mr Stoiber's decision to present his own radical plans for reforming Germany's labour market and welfare system, in response to those presented by Mr Schröder last month. The Christian Democrats, who were not even consulted beforehand, were furious, seeing Mr Stoiber's move as a ploy to make up some of the ground he had lost to Mrs Merkel after his defeat in the general election. The Bavarian leader clearly hopes to lead the conservatives for a second time into battle in the next general election, due in 2006. But Mrs Merkel, who is 14 years his junior, is determined not to bow to his wishes again.

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