Germany: Trust but verify

Two debates on whether it is safe to give the German people more of a voice

CAN the world trust Germany, and can Germans trust themselves? Nearly 60 years after the second world war, such questions must seem almost insulting. Yet Germany is still not a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. And it is one of the few big democracies not to allow referendums. Now change is in the air on both fronts. The German government is campaigning hard for a permanent Security Council seat. And, after the British and French decisions to hold referendums on the European Union constitution, the pressure is building for Germany to follow suit.

Neither issue is new. Ever since reunification, German governments have expressed interest in being on the Security Council. But even Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, who thinks Germany is a big country that should be treated as such, has not pushed hard. Yet now that the idea of a common seat for the European Union is receding, he is more insistent on one for Germany. His foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, is lobbying around the world.

Calls for referendums have also been made before, for instance to approve German reunification. But they ran into the post-war consensus against such consultation, after Hitler's exploitation of populism. Only now has it sunk in that it was not referendums that paved the way for Hitler - there were only two during the Weimar Republic. Today, politicians are more fearful of being seen to mistrust the people: 81% of Germans say they want a referendum on the EU constitution.

So what are the chances of either change happening? Germany has a good case for a permanent voice among the world's powers. Only America and Japan contribute more to the UN budget than Germany. Japan is also lobbying for a place at the top table. And, with 8,600 soldiers now on duty across the world, Germany is also among the leading contributors to UN-mandated missions. Yet such figures count for little in the power struggle over UN reform.

Instead of new permanent members, the panel working on UN reform seems to want a new class of semi-permanent members, elected for five years, a solution that would not satisfy Germany. What is more, some permanent members are not keen on Germany joining them. France and Britain are said to be in favour, but probably only to fend off demands to turn their seats into a single EU one. The Italians are against there being a seat for Germany, but not for Italy. More important, Germany's recent actions as a non-permanent member are seen in Washington as unhelpful, not just on Iraq but also over such issues as the International Criminal Court.

Referendum enthusiasts will also have to be patient, not least because they do not form a united front. Some, such as the Free Democrats and Bavaria's Christian Social Union, want only a referendum on the EU constitution. Others, mainly the Social Democrats and Greens in the ruling coalition, are in favour of more direct democracy, but not for foreign-policy or EU matters. Such differences will make it hard to get the necessary two-thirds majority in both houses to change the constitution to allow referendums. Mr Schroder, who is against a referendum on the EU constitution, will push parliament to ratify it fast, so as to show the way for the rest of Europe. The government also plans a bill that would allow referendums on pending legislation, but this bill is no likelier to pass than a previous one.

Even if any proposed changes come to naught, the debate on both issues suggests that German democracy is maturing. But it is perhaps not yet as deep as it should be. Some critics denounce demands for a place on the Security Council as “left-wing nationalism” and a shift away from European integration. Meanwhile proponents avoid all the hard questions. Would a permanent seat not entail spending more on defence, and sending soldiers on real combat missions?

Similarly, those in favour of referendums do not look far enough ahead. Allowing a referendum on the EU constitution might make it hard to refuse one on Turkey's EU membership. And what if voters blocked structural reforms, such as the labour-market changes against which they are protesting in the streets? Too much consultation can be as dodgy as too little.

Two debates on whether it is safe to give the German people more of a voice: on referendums within Germany and on a seat on the UN Security Council.

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