Germany. A grand cock-up

More squabbles upset Angela Merkel's hopes of leading a strong government

IT WAS always going to be hard to form a "grand coalition" government out of the main centre-right and centre-left parties in Germany. Unfortunately, the inconclusive result of the election on September 18th left the politicians with little alternative. And until this week it seemed as if Angela Merkel, leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), had succeeded in cobbling such a coalition together, enabling her later this month to become both the first woman and the first person to hail from the east ever to be Germany's federal chancellor.

Ms Merkel may yet fulfil her ambition. But after this week's shenanigans ()see page 43, the timetable seems likely to slip - and the odds against her managing to form a grand coalition at all have risen sharply. The trouble began when the chairman of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Franz Muntefering, quit his post after the party's executive chose a left-winger in place of his preferred moderate candidate as its general secretary. It is even possible that Mr Muntefering may not serve as Ms Merkel's putative vice-chancellor and labour minister either. But almost as shocking was the peremptory decision by Edmund Stoiber, leader of the CDU's sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union, who is a friend of Mr Muntefering's, to pick up his marbles and go back to Munich rather than serve as Ms Merkel's economics minister in Berlin.

To look on the bright side, Ms Merkel might find a government without Mr Stoiber, who is no free-market liberal, easier to run, even if he carps from the sidelines. But the troubles within the SPD have confirmed that that party is tending to move leftwards. That makes the task of agreeing on any of the substantial further reforms that Germany needs (and that Ms Merkel says she wants) practically impossible. Any grand coalition that takes office now is likely to be even weaker and shorter-lived than had already seemed likely.

The politicians in Berlin are duty-bound to continue negotiating their way towards such a government, even so. Polls show that a large majority of German voters want to see a grand coalition. There seems to be no chance of any other coalition being assembled: the Green Party has ruled out joining one with the CDU and the Free Democrats (FDP), the FDP refuses to sign up with the SPD and the Greens, and nobody will work with the Left Party. Thus, if efforts to repair Ms Merkel's hoped-for grand coalition fail over the next few weeks, the only alternative will be a fresh election, probably next March, conceivably with new candidates for the chancellorship.

Indeed, that could yet be the best outcome, for it might give the CDU more votes and the SPD fewer. But a fresh election would also carry two big risks. One is that the result could be just as inconclusive as last September's, leaving the politicians in a similar mess. The other is that the smaller parties, particularly the Left Party, might be the big gainers, making the task of building any coalition harder than ever. In either case Germany could end up even more paralysed than it is now.

How much does any of this matter? With some tentative signs of economic recovery in Germany - as in the rest of Europe - it is a fair question. But the answer is that Germany still desperately needs a government that has both the strength and the desire to push through tough and potentially unpopular reforms if it is to get properly back to economic health. The fraught negotiations over a grand coalition, culminating in this week's drama, have already set back a budding revival in business and consumer confidence.

In search of leadership

The rest of Europe needs a strong and reforming German government too. It is hard for any countries in the euro area to thrive without faster growth in the biggest economy, Germany. Worse, it happens that all three core euro countries - Germany, France and Italy, which between them account for 70% of the euro area's GDP - are suffering from weak political leadership at the same time.

France seems to be in the grip of a sour anti-globalisation mood, and President Jacques Chirac is unlikely to run for the presidency for a third time in the spring of 2007. His lieutenants within the government are jockeying for the succession rather than taking any serious interest in reform. Italy is already in the midst of a campaign for the parliamentary election due in April 2006, and neither the centre-right government under Silvio Berlusconi nor the centre-left opposition under Romano Prodi appears to have much appetite for big structural change. No wonder so many economists are still gloomy about the future of Europe.

Editorial says that more squabbles upset Angela Merkel's hopes of leading a strong government.