Germans to revive ‘Ostpolitik’ in Brussels

When diplomats discuss Germany’s EU presidency one word that repeatedly comes up in conversation is Ostpolitik.

The use of a word redolent of West Germany’s 30-year-long rapprochement with Communist Europe might seem surprising. But Germany’s intention to focus on the Union’s eastern neighbours - the new Ostpolitik - is billed as one of the central planks of its presidency.

Convincing the other 26 member states to adopt a more pragmatic and less conditional approach to relations with Russia will prove a difficult task, even if all member states agree that relations with the EU’s giant neighbour are of fundamental importance.

For those member states that argue that the EU must make greater, not less, political and democratic demands of Russia, Germany’s new drive is likely to be anathema.

The build-up to Russia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for the end of 2007, will only serve to renew the focus on the country’s faltering democratic institutions and the need for reform.

But Berlin’s first task will be to find a way out of the impasse caused by Poland’s veto on opening negotiations on a new agreement between the EU and Russia.

Negotiations on the successor to the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement are scheduled to begin in January, although that timetable has been called into question by Poland’s insistence that Russia should first lift its ban on Polish meat and vegetable imports.

Finding a solution that saves face for both Poland and Russia will require some deft diplomatic footwork.

Germany will also have to work hard to convince many of the EU’s newer member states that it can be an honest broker when it comes to relations with Russia.

The EU’s three Baltic members, as well as Poland, have bridled against Germany’s decision to support the trans-Baltic gas pipeline with Russia. The pipeline bypasses the four states, which say their energy security has been called into question.

They suspect that when it comes to Russia the interests of big German business, in particular E.ON and Siemens, are more important to policy than any democratic calculation.

Another plank of the German presidency’s eastern focus will be the revision of the European neighbourhood policy. In effect, the proposed reforms would mean a substantial increase in EU funding and offers to negotiate comprehensive free trade agreements with neighbouring countries.

The German presidency will come under pressure from France, Italy, Spain and others not to focus too heavily on countries to the EU’s east at the expense of the southern Mediterranean. German leaders have already been scolded for proposals to separate the two regions, which are both part of the current neighbourhood policy.

During its presidency Germany will also attempt to forge the EU’s first coherent policy towards central Asia. Up to now the EU has not sought to gain substantial influence in the region, which is dominated by Russia, China, India and the US. But energy concerns mean that the EU is now limbering up to play a greater role. The challenge for Germany may be to create a coherent vision for achieving the EU’s goals. With little common ground between the EU and countries of the region on political and democratic reform, the German presidency is expected to focus on the less contentious issues of trade and energy, while promoting regional integration.

Whether this adds up to a strategically significant policy will depend on Germany’s skill in creating consensus with other EU member states.

When diplomats discuss Germany’s EU presidency one word that repeatedly comes up in conversation is Ostpolitik.