German politics: In search of Schwarzenegger

Date: 28/02/04

If you think populists will never have a chance in Germany, think again

FOR somebody fighting for his political survival, Ronald Schill, Hamburg's former interior minister, is surprisingly relaxed. Lunching on his favourite food of oysters seems as important to him as campaigning to get back into parliament at the city-state's election on February 29th. He even stays calm when complaining that he is the victim of a political conspiracy.

Mr Schill has certainly made it easy for any conspirators. In September 2001, running on a law-and-order agenda and his record as a judge, his party won a sensational 19.4% of the vote in Hamburg, and joined the governing coalition. Yet “Judge Merciless” is now plodding along in low single figures, thanks to a chapter of travails that included a xenophobic speech in the federal parliament and improprieties by a close aide. The last straw came in August, when Mr Schill apparently accused Ole von Beust, Hamburg's mayor, of a homosexual relationship with the justice minister. The mayor fired Mr Schill - and his party later expelled him.

If pollsters are right, Mr Schill's new party, called PRO-DM, will not scrape up enough votes to enter parliament. But his fate may help to answer an often-asked question: can a right-wing populist party ever become a permanent part of the political landscape in Germany, as it is in many other European countries?

It is not that there is no demand for such parties, says Frank Decker, a political scientist at Bonn University. As in Austria, France or Denmark, plenty of Germans feel they are losing out to economic and social upheaval, and are willing to support such people as Mr Schill. The problem is more of supply. There are institutional barriers: for instance, the 5% minimum threshold, and Germany's federalist structure, which allows voters to express frustrations at state level. Established parties have also done a good job of taking over typical populist issues, notably immigration.

Then there is history. The media will not touch right-wing populists. And extremists, because they are unwelcome elsewhere, tend to infiltrate any new populist parties, making them less attractive. On top of this, there have been no charismatic politicians to match Jorg Haider in Austria or Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands.

Many expected Mr Schill to become one. As a former judge with no political background, he could not be suspected of being a neo-Nazi, which made it easier for conservative media to back him. He also gained support because the Social Democrats, who had ruled Hamburg for 44 years, realised too late how big an issue crime was. If his party had not attracted so many “gripers and careerists”, as he calls them, it might have achieved the all-important follow-on success. But it won only 0.8% at federal elections in 2002.

Populists could yet do better in 2006. For one thing, they are learning from past mistakes. Mr Schill's new party, for instance, hand-picks its members. Its founder, Bolko Hoffmann, has a plan: enter Hamburg's parliament and then Saxony's. The demand for a populist party is growing, thanks to the painful economic reforms made by the governing Social Democrats. Disgruntled voters do not think the Christian Democrats would be much better. Political parties have long been unpopular, but they are now the least trusted bodies in Germany.

So far, frustration with politics is mainly reflected in the mass media, especially Bild, the tabloid (and populist) daily. It recently asked: Do we need a German Schwarzenegger? As for Mr Schill, if his party fails to enter parliament, Judge Merciless threatens to leave Germany and live as a dropout in South America.

If you think populists will never have a chance in Germany, think again.

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