German politics. In limboland

An election on September 18th is still likely, but not a certainty

HERE is another theory for why Gerhard Schroder, Germany's chancellor, decided to go for early elections: he is gambling that either the federal president or the constitutional court will stop him - so he can stay. That would put the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) in the awkward situation of having chosen their candidate, written their programme and spent much of their money. It seems highly unlikely, but such talk is testimony to Germany's state of political limbo. One rumour chases another, and neither a constitutional crisis nor Mr Schroder's resignation can be totally excluded.

To avoid the instability that plagued the Weimar Republic, Germany's constitution made it hard to dissolve parliament and call early elections. The only clear-cut situation is if there is no majority in parliament for a new chancellor. The dodgier solution is for the government to lose a vote of confidence by persuading some supporters to defect, in effect tricking the constitution. The federal president can, if he thinks there is no need for early elections, refuse them. And even if he gives his go-ahead within the requisite 21 days, members of the Bundestag can take the issue to the constitutional court.

When Willy Brandt became the first chancellor to seek early elections via a vote of confidence in 1972, nobody complained: after parliamentary defections, he no longer had a majority. When Helmut Kohl did it in 1982, it smacked of manipulation, since it was designed to lock in strong public support. Yet despite misgivings, the president and the court caved in, although the court ruled that there must be a “political situation of instability” for such a route to be taken again.

Mr Schroder can argue that he is in such a situation: he has only a slim majority in parliament, and some left-wingers have threatened to defect. All important legislation can now be blocked by the upper house, which is controlled by the opposition. But matters are complicated by Germany's political set-up, which is why Mr Schroder is waiting to reveal his course of action until shortly before July 1st, the likely date for the vote of confidence.

Nobody within the governing coalition wants to be responsible for regicide, because this could lose votes. It seemed at first that left-wingers in the Social Democratic Party (SPD) would do Mr Schroder the favour of not voting for him. When they refused, the chancellor tried to get his coalition partner, the Greens, to do it - which almost blew apart the coalition. Now he seems likely to invite ministers, most of whom are members of parliament, to abstain.

Mr Schroder's gambit may lead to a trial of strength with the president, Horst Kohler. The chancellor informed the president only after his decision had been announced. Mr Schroder also let it be known that he would stay if parliament were not dissolved. Mr Kohler is upset, and has made remarks implying that Mr Schroder neither knows nor respects the constitution. If he meekly yields to Mr Schroder's and the opposition's desire for an early election, he might seem a patsy; and the court could overrule him. On the other hand, most Germans want elections; stopping them, so leaving the coalition in power, could create a crisis of its own.

Even if Mr Kohler goes along with the election and the court does not intervene, Mr Schroder is not out of the woods. The controversy over the early election seems to have sped the decline of the SPD, after its crushing defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia. None of the aims of Mr Schroder's surprise election call have been met. Bickering within the coalition has increased, and the installation of Angela Merkel as the opposition's chancellor-candidate was swift and smooth. Ms Merkel, long the great unloved figure in German politics, is now more popular than Mr Schroder. Germans seem to want a change of government, no matter to whom.

As a result, yet another rumour is doing the rounds: that Mr. Schroder could step down, whatever Mr Kohler decides, making way for Franz Müntefering, the SPD's boss, who would serve until the autumn of 2006. Could this, one way or another, be the moment to count Mr Schroder out? It is hard, for once, to see how he might bounce back. If he is not careful, he may even be bungling his own exit.

Will there be a general election in Germany in 2005, or will German constitutional law prevent it?

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