German politics. Children of the bourgeoisie, unite!

Could the Greens become the kingmakers of Germany?

SOME things rarely change, notably German politics. Before every European election, pundits lament that the campaign is about domestic politics and that Germans are losing interest in Europe. But in this weekend's elections, two other political classics are more interesting. One is whether the Free Democrats (FDP) will stop their decline, and clear the 5% hurdle a party needs to win any seats. The other is whether, for the first time, there might be a coalition of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Greens in one of Germany's states. For the CDU is expected to lose its absolute majority in the state election in Thuringia.

The two questions are really one: who in future will tip the scales in Germany's political system, in which absolute majorities are rare thanks to proportional representation? Until 1998, the FDP was the kingmaker. But it was the Greens that helped Gerhard Schroder to become chancellor and have now established themselves as the third force in German politics. In the European elections, they will probably double their score to 11-13%.

Zoom back 20 years and such a scenario looks surreal. The FDP was then Germany's most modern party, demanding far-reaching structural reforms while also defending civil liberties. The Greens had only just won their first seats in the German parliament, and were widely considered a transitory phenomenon whose radical anti-establishment views would soon return them to political obscurity.

That did not happen. With everybody now calling for structural reform, the FDP no longer has a unique selling-point. It also seems now to be less free-market, certainly when it comes to the party's core supporters, such as architects and lawyers. But the FDP's biggest flaw is that it has moved down-market. To broaden its appeal at the 2002 elections, Guido Westerwelle, the FDP leader, tried to reposition the party as a Spasspartei - a fun-loving party for which serious things like civil liberties no longer mattered. According to a recent poll, 59% of Germans associate the FDP with the word “show” and only 45% with “freedom”.

Even as the FDP squandered political capital, the Greens nurtured theirs. Their ministers are among the more competent and popular in Mr Schroder's cabinet. What is more, the party has ditched many leftist positions. It supported sending German soldiers to Kosovo and Afghanistan. Today, younger Greens are not just environmentalist and socially liberal, but also fiscal conservatives. This metamorphosis has made the party more appealing to younger and less culturally conservative Christian Democrats. At local level, there are many so-called “black-green” coalitions: for instance, in Cologne, Kiel and Kassel. In such coalitions the “children of the bourgeoisie” find and embrace one another, jokes Paul Nolte, an historian.

There remain many issues on which Greens and Christian Democrats disagree, such as nuclear power, immigration and same-sex marriages. This is why not many black-green coalitions are likely. Indeed, in Thuringia, CDU leaders have so far excluded any possibility of such a coalition. But after elections these denials can be quickly forgotten. And even if such a pairing does not happen this time, the next chance may come soon: in May 2005, in an election in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Whether the Greens can become the hinge of German democracy will, of course, depend also on the FDP. At a party congress on June 6th, FDP leaders vowed to focus on policy debates not personal battles. Yet the next one already looms: whether Mr Westerwelle or Wolfgang Gerhard, the FDP parliamentary leader, should be foreign minister if Mr Schroder loses the 2006 elections. Such personal feuds will not help to fend off Green pretensions to be the new kingmakers.

Can the Greens become the kingmakers of German politics? At local level in Germany, there are already some Christian Democrat-Green alliances.

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