German demography. Cradle snatching

Date: 18/03/06

The difficulties of living with a low birth-rate

ALARMING as it might sound, it is hardly news that Germany is becoming the world's nursing home. No other rich country has a lower birth rate (see chart). Last year, the number of births hit a post-war low of 680,000--half the combined number for both parts of Germany 40 years ago. The total population has now been shrinking for three years in a row. A report published this week by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development points out one of the less obvious consequences of this: rising competition between regions for scarce young people.

"Demographic theft" is already commonplace. Over the past 15 years, Germany has had a wave of internal migration not seen since the second world war. Much of it has been from east to west, with 1.5m people leaving Germany's poorer part, causing some regions to lose nearly a third of their population. But people have also been moving from north to south, notably from the Ruhr area to Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, the southern German states that are doing best economically. These two are now home to almost 30% of the population.

One result is that demographically growing regions keep growing, while those losing people go on doing so. Once caught in a vicious circle, it is hard for a region to recover: after losing the young, female and well-educated, municipalities have to close schools, increase utility fees to finance an oversized infrastructure and spend more on an ageing population--all of which makes them still less attractive. One visible sign is the number of windows without curtains: in eastern Germany, 1.3m apartments stand empty, 16% of the total.

Local politicians are at a loss over what to do in "shrinking" regions. Indeed, so is the country as a whole. Post-war Germany has gone to great lengths to ensure "equality of living conditions", a principle enshrined in the country's Basic Law. This was feasible so long as regions were not too different. But with today's disparities, equalisation costs too much. Instead of spreading its money widely, argues Reiner Klingholz, director of the Berlin Institute and one of the authors of the study, the state should concentrate its help on regions and cities that are economically promising.

The most obvious answer, raising the birth rate, is hard to achieve. And at least a low birth rate is good news for animals. As humans withdraw, wildlife is returning, notably near the eastern border. The lynx can be found again. The Lausitz, part of Saxony, is now home to two packs of wolves. Some even expect bears to come back one day. Their reappearance might be the ultimate sign that Germans really are a dying breed.

Germany has a low birth rate and there is also population movement from east to west and from north to south. leaving certain regions in a vicious cycle of decline.