Georgia’s vulnerability to Russian pressure points

Russia’s trump card in hindering Georgia’s rapprochement with the EU lies in the two occupied regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, according to this paper. Following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea, author Sergi Kapanadze says Russia may even go as far as to annex South Ossetia. He also suggests Moscow would be likely to target the Geneva talks process on the two disputed regions in order to contest Georgia’s Association Agreement with the EU, due to be signed in June 2014.

The author says 'Georgia needs to acknowledge its vulnerabilities and warn its EU and NATO allies of the threat, so that when the pressure mounts they are not caught on their heels – as they were in Ukraine'.

Prof Kapanadze concludes that the options Russia may use to deter Georgia’s EU integration - and Tbilisi’s reaction to them - could depend on developments in Ukraine because the EU’s economic interest in Russia’s Eastern Partnership area will be determined by its future relationship with Kiev.

ESO: Background information: The EU's Association Agreements with Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine http://www.europeansources.info/record/signing-ceremony-of-the-association-agreements-with-georgia-the-republic-of-moldova-and-ukraine-27-june-2014/

ESO: Background information: Caucasus. Abkhazia's dilemma: no future without Russia http://www.europeansources.info/record/caucasus-abkhazias-dilemma-no-future-without-russia/

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