Georgia’s post-election turmoil: Ye shall not be saved

Date: 22/11/03

The president may survive, but at a high price

ANYBODY watching Georgia might think that Edward Shevardnadze's presidency was about to end. Ever since flawed parliamentary elections on November 2nd, opposition leaders have been bringing thousands of protesters on to the streets, calling for Mr Shevardnadze to step down. More protests are planned when final official figures give two pro-government blocks the most votes. The trouble is that exit polls and an independent tally both gave first place to an opposition party.

What is really at stake is the presidential election in 2005. The parliamentary vote was both a popularity test for opposition hopefuls and a way for Mr Shevardnadze to influence the succession. If he steps down before his term ends, the speaker of parliament becomes acting president, giving him a head-start.

This week Mr Shevardnadze has started to put some pro-government demonstrators on to the streets. But most were brought in from Ajaria, an autonomous region in the west of Georgia run by the autocratic Aslan Abashidze. In his fief, no election observers were allowed. Official figures put both voter turnout and support for the pro-government party that he controls at over 90%.

By calling on Mr Abashidze, Mr Shevardnadze may win, for now. His main opponent, Mikheil Saakashvili, is defiant, but may not want to risk violent clashes. Memories of the civil war a decade ago are sharp, and Georgians contrast their peaceful protests with the ugly post-election riots in neighbouring Azerbaijan. “It's a promising sign that Georgia still has a chance to be part of the civilised world,” says Temuri Yakobashvili of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies.

But Mr Shevardnadze's gamble is a pact with the devil. The price for Mr Abashidze's backing will be a growth of his influence - not the best thing to give a feudal lord in a fractured country. He has been to Russia as Mr Shevardnadze's representative. But Moscow still despises Mr Shevardnadze for his role, as Soviet foreign minister, in breaking up the Soviet Union. Russia already interferes in two other autonomous regions of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. To go to Russia cap in hand is a sign of the president's desperation to hold on to power - and a disappointment to those who had hoped for stronger democracy in Georgia. “This was an exam,” says Mr Yakobashvili, “and we just failed it.”