Georgia: Hail, Mikhail

Date: 31/01/04

America seeks to edge Russian influence out of Georgia

THE inauguration of Georgia's new president, Mikhail Saakashvili, on January 25th was long on pageantry, with a medieval standard being proclaimed the national flag. But it was the troops marching past in American uniforms that pointed to the future. The soldiers were Georgian, but for over 18 months they had been trained by instructors from the United States. At first glance, they looked American; they had even been taught not to goose-step.

To the assembled dignitaries, including the American secretary of state, Colin Powell, and the Russian foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, the symbol of shifting influence was all too clear. Just when the Americans had become frustrated with Edward Shevardnadze's inept presidency, the “rose revolution ” - a peaceful protest that forced a change at the top last November and propelled Mr Saakashvili to power - came along. This 36-year-old American-educated lawyer makes an ideal partner for the West. Not only is he eager to stamp out corruption and rescue the economy; he is also keen to escape the shadow of Georgia's former Russian masters and to bring the country into the West's clubs, including NATO and even the European Union.

Mr Powell was quick to urge the Russians to keep their vow to close Soviet-era bases in Georgia. Three more years, say the Georgians, should be long enough. Russia wants 11 years, insisting it needs the bases for security, and cannot afford to move them. Georgians say the first argument boils down to big-power psychology. “It's an imperial perception,” says Alexander Rondeli of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. The second argument is more plausible: there are bad memories in Russia of the costs of withdrawing troops from Germany. But it has been undercut by America's offer to pay some of the cost. (Georgia's foreign minister, Tedo Japaridze, says the Russians quoted the sum of $500m, though their foreign ministry denies this.)

As for the Americans, they clearly want to stay in the Caucasus. Their training programme expires this May, but military links will remain. Mr Powell told the Georgians that “the door to NATO remains open,” although he denied any ambitions for an American base. Mr Ivanov said last December that having a NATO country on Russia's southern border would “prompt very obvious concern.” When Moldova's government last November pulled out of a deal to keep Russian bases until 2020, the Russians said it was evidence of western meddling. Mr Saakashvili says he does not want Georgia to be “a battlefield between superpowers”. Sadly, it may not be for him to decide.