Gearing up for Silvio’s hand at the Union’s helm

Date: 26/06/03

Get ready for fireworks - here come the Italians. The next six months will produce its fair share of controversy, predicts David Cronin

ONE thing is certain: the next six months will not be dull. Italy's EU presidency, which kicks off on 1 July, means Silvio Berlusconi, Europe's richest premier and arguably its most controversial, will be the Union's chief mouthpiece.

Under investigation for a myriad of bribery and abuse of power charges, the Forza Italia leader was conferred with immunity from prosecution last week. Now that it seems he will not have to make regular appearances in court rooms, he should be able to concentrate on the EU's political agenda.

Do not be surprised, though, if other pressing matters vie for his time - after all, this is the man who took time out from high-level dialogue with Israel to offer his views on whether his football club AC Milan should spend its euro on David Beckham.

Nevertheless, the Italians are promising plenty of panache as they try to steer the EU through what could well be some of the most trying times in its history.

During last week's Thessaloniki summit (19-21 June), Berlusconi spoke at length about his desire to have a second Treaty of Rome. While cynical pundits consider his insistence that the country's capital prove the venue for its signing ceremony as parochial gimmickry, those who wax lyrical about integration believe it could be symbolic of a new reinvigoration for the so-called European project.

Berlusconi did not demand that the treaty be completed by the end of the Italian presidency. But he is adamant it will be signed in Rome, even if it is finished during the Irish presidency next year. For symbolic reasons, he seems to believe it is far more important that it be called the Treaty of Rome, than, for example, the Treaty of Birr, which lies in the constituency of Ireland's Foreign Minister Brian Cowen.

Whatever happens the treaty will have to be finalized within the foreseeable future. This will involve overcoming such tricky issues as the UK's stated determination to resist anything which could weaken its cherished veto rights over taxation and foreign policy issues.

Secondly, the Italians hope they can patch up transatlantic relations following the fallout over Iraq. Doubtless they are in a far better position to help that process than many other EU states - Americans have not stopped eating pizzas in the way they have insisted on renaming French fries "freedom fries", for example. And Berlusconi himself used to be able to boast that alongside Tony Blair he was Washington's best friend in Europe.

Spain's José María Aznar and Poland's Leszek Miller probably feel they now have a stronger claim to that title. Still, the enduring suspicion which Berlusconi and his coalition partners harbour towards those who espouse left-wing views means he is on more of a wavelength with George W. Bush than many of his EU counterparts.

That said, the ongoing EU rift with the US caused by differences over everything from reform of global farm trade to the International Criminal Court will take more than Latin charm to heal. Equally, there is the risk that Berlusconi's less than subtle approach to international affairs could make him a minion of Bush but an enemy of Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder. Such a fear was raised earlier this month by Michael Müller, vice-chairman of the Social Democrat group in German parliament the Bundestag: "Just at a time when Europe is supposed to be brought together, a rowdy becomes its leader."

Staying with questions of foreign policy, the Italians say they wish to keep the focus on efforts to ensure lasting stability in the western Balkans and the need to implement the Middle East road-map. Provided the persisting ethnic tensions do not flare up in the former Yugoslavia, the former task should be considerably easier than the latter one.

For Berlusconi sent a nervous ripple through the EU institutions recently, when he decided to snub Yasser Arafat during a visit to the Middle East to meet Ariel Sharon, the Israeli premier. This went against the agreed protocol for the Union's leaders, which says that a courtesy call on one side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict must be balanced with a meeting with the other. Moreover, it suggested Berlusconi was siding with US and Israeli attempts to make Arafat irrelevant, against European demands that he continue to be recognized as democratically elected president of the Palestinian Authority.

The action earned Berlusconi a thinly-veiled rebuke from European Commission President Romano Prodi who warned there can be no solution to the conflict unless talks are held with both protagonists.

But a senior official in Italy's foreign ministry insisted Berlusconi will be happy to visit Ramallah, Arafat's headquarters, if he goes to the Middle East during the Italian presidency. "Mr Berlusconi would have no problem in meeting Arafat," the official said. "It just wasn't possible on that occasion as it was a bilateral visit to Israel."

Meanwhile, it is conceivable that human rights activists will have some harsh words to say about how the Italians treat migration issues in the coming months.

Indeed, the government in Rome has two far-right parties within its fold - the self-described "post-fascist" National Alliance (Alleanza Nationale) of Deputy Prime Minister Gianfranco Fini (see Profile, Page 10) and Umberto Bossi's Northern League (Lega Nord). Bossi, the minister for reforms and devolution, was recently quoted as calling for boats carrying illegal immigrants to be shot out of the water. He later denied saying it.

The outgoing Greek presidency has succeeded in brokering agreement among EU justice ministers on several migration dossiers, including those on long-term residency status and reuniting refugees with family members.

Yet they were unable to make deals on the fundamental questions posed by the EU's draft "qualifications" directive, which aims to define what criteria asylum-seekers should meet before they are granted rights such as access to employment, social welfare and education. European Commission President Romano Prodi last week urged the Italians to prioritize that directive.

On the economic front, Berlusconi's government will be hoping to win broad support for their plans to pump billions into projects to improve the infrastructure.

Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti has proposed that €50-70 billion should be devoted to projects such as the Trans European Networks. Current investment in these road and rail schemes is around €20 billion per annum.

Tremonti is floating the idea that a large amount of this money, which he hopes would trigger an economic renaissance for the Union, could come from the European Investment Bank.

Some commentators view that suggestion as an attempt to circumvent the rules on public expenditure laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact.

Italy is known to have had severe difficulty honouring its obligations under the pact, which Romano Prodi has famously dubbed "stupid" (even though he signed up to it, when he was the country's premier). At last, there appears to be something on which Prodi and Berlusconi agree...

Analysis of the prospects for the Italian Presidency of the EU which began on 1 July 2003.

http://www.ueitalia2003.it/EN/ http://www.ueitalia2003.it/EN/

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