From membership conditionality to policy conditionality: EU external governance in South Eastern Europe

Abstract: In view of the uncertainty about the final outcome of the current enlargement process, how effective is the EU's acquis conditionality in South Eastern Europe? By elaborating on the example of justice and home affairs, the article argues that the EU's external leverage has remained strong, as the EU has developed additional ways to render its conditionality approach credible. Although the hurdles for entering the EU have been raised, Croatia's compliance efforts can be considered to be similar to the logic observed in the eastern enlargement. The key to understanding the compliance of Macedonia, whose membership prospect is less certain or even questionable, is to take into account policy conditionality in addition to membership conditionality. The EU managed to compensate for less credible membership rewards by substantially increasing the value of the policy reward of visa-free travel. This strategy was effective but has created tensions with regard to the EU's broader objectives in the region.