Foresight – Contribution to the debate on the future of EU agricultural policy

Strategic foresight is increasingly being used as a technique to help organisations anticipate and prepare for potential challenges or opportunities. Its application to agricultural and rural development policies is examined in this briefing. A range of relevant foresight studies are identified and examined across a number of elements, covering:

+ the identification of key drivers of change;
+ the nature of the scenarios they present (including the role of technology and precision farming);
+ food security as well as the territorial dimensions relating to the future of Europe’s rural areas.

These findings are analysed for their implications for future policy-making in respect of EU agriculture and rural development matters.

In the field of public policy, there is a growing realisation that the policy process has to address many challenges such as: advancing greater policy integration; identifying and applying the lessons from previous experience of policy implementation; maximising the use of the available evidence base, and considering and adopting a long-term view of the future through forward thinking involving the development of different scenarios.

Foresight studies recognise the multi-disciplinary nature of the challenges facing agriculture and the importance of 'interconnected policy-making'. The potential also exists for strategic foresight to be applied at different territorial levels.

Author: James McEldowney

ESO: Background information: Public consultation identifies challenges for future Common Agricultural Policy (European Commission, July 2017) http://www.europeansources.info/record/public-consultation-identifies-challenges-for-future-common-agricultural-policy/

EP: EPRS: Briefing, June 2017: Current priorities and challenges in EU agricultural policy http://www.europeansources.info/record/current-priorities-and-challenges-in-eu-agricultural-policy/

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