Foreign ministries eye up Solana’s job

Javier Solana’s mandate as EU foreign policy chief was extended in 2004 until the end of 2009, but there are senior diplomats in Brussels who consider it most unlikely that he will stay on until then. Already seven years into an extremely demanding post, the 64-year-old Spaniard is considered unlikely to be able to maintain the same levels of energy and commitment for a further three years.

Up until last year Solana was set to become the EU’s first foreign minister - a post created by the EU constitution, which would have merged his job as the Council of Ministers’ high representative for foreign affairs with the post of European commissioner for external relations, currently filled by Benita Ferrero-Waldner. But since the constitution is now in limbo and even if revived stands no chance of coming into effect before 2009, Solana cannot take up the job that was made for him (and he for it, some would add). Speculation that Solana might be a candidate for mayor of Madrid has increased the sense of uncertainty. Solana has declared he has no interest in being a candidate in the May contest, but that has not quelled talk in Madrid that he might be a winning option for the Socialists.

A number of European capitals have started testing the waters to see if one of their nationals might replace him. Germany is emerging as the country with the strongest interest in the post. Günter Verheugen, the enterprise and industry commissioner, is not denying his eagerness to swap his current responsibilities for a foreign affairs post. As enlargement commissioner from 1999 to 2004, he played a major role in preparing for the EU’s biggest ever expansion to ten countries. Before that he was Germany’s European affairs minister.

Senior diplomatic sources say that the foreign ministry, where Verheugen’s former chef de cabinet, Peter Tempel, is head of the EU directorate, would be keen to see the post of high representative go to a German. But the office of Chancellor Angela Merkel is less keen on seeing such a change in a senior position given the disruption it would cause - at least not until after its presidency of the Council of Ministers in the first half of next year. If Verheugen, a member of the Germany socialist party SPD, were to move to the Council, then, given the need to balance the interests of the ruling coalition, it would likely be Christian Democrat Matthias Wissman, currently chairman of the Bundestag’s EU affairs committee, who would replace him at the Commission. That would give the CDU, the senior coalition partner, a presence in the Commission headquarters, the Berlaymont.

Verheugen is not the only possible candidate to replace Solana. The former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt, a man with wide experience of the Balkans conflict as an EU high representative and UN special envoy, is also reported to be interested in Solana’s position. He would have the backing of the recently ele-cted centre-right Swedish government led by Moderate party leader Frederik Reinfeldt. But senior diplomats doubted whether the post would go to a Swede over a German candidate even if Bildt is a fluent German speaker and reportedly gets on with French President Jacques Chirac.

The President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso wants to avoid a major reshuffle in the Commission line-up, so he will be wary of changes to the post of high representative that might have knock-on effects for his own team.

Barroso has said on a number of occasions that his team has reached "cruising speed" and he wants to limit changes to those enforced by the addition of new members from Romania and Bulgaria when they join in January.

The Barroso camp fears that MEPs might insist on an extensive round of hearings for commissioners put into new jobs and a potentially politically risky approval vote.

But Barroso might find himself making more changes than just creating spaces for Bucharest and Sofia’s candidates if Margot Wallström, the Swedish commissioner, has to return to Stockholm and lead an overhaul of the Social Democrats in opposition. Since Social Democrat leader Göran Persson lost the election earlier this month and announced that he would be stepping down from the party leadership, Wallström has stated a number of times that she is not interested. But insiders say that, if the party was convinced she was their best hope of re-election, she would not be able to say no. If she were to go, that might create another way for Bildt to come to Brussels, though not to the post he would like most.

Javier Solana’s mandate as EU foreign policy chief was extended in 2004 until the end of 2009, but there are senior diplomats in Brussels who consider it most unlikely that he will stay on until then. Already seven years into an extremely demanding post, the 64-year-old Spaniard is considered unlikely to be able to maintain the same levels of energy and commitment for a further three years.

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