Forecast of emissions from road traffic in the European Communities

Summary:

Road traffic constitutes one of the major air pollution sources in all European Communities' countries. Therefore, the need for reducing traffic produced emissions is considered as a priority step towards cleaner atmosphere. To this aim the Community decided the compulsory introduction of three-way closed-loop catalysts for passenger cars, in order to take full advantage of today's best available technology. Moreover the Council discussion with regard to the reduction of heavy-duty vehicle emissions is coming to an end and proposals for emission reduction concerning two wheelers, light duty trucks and evaporative losses are in preparation.

This report presents the results of a study carried out for the Commission of the European Communities (DG XI), with regard to the expected evolution of traffic produced emissions in the atmosphere of the European Community, in order to better assess and analyze further necessary steps to be taken towards a differentiated market behaviour and use of the automobile. The projection calculations have been carried out with a computer programme (called FOREMOVE), also developed within this study. Based on detailed statistical data for each member-state, the programme takes into account all major parameters of the dynamic system in question, such as character of vehicle park, vehicle usage, inspection and maintenance situation, status in the implementation of new emission standards, incentive programmes etc.

In order to better assess the expected advantages and/or disadvantages of different possible evolutions, different "scenarios" were developed. These include a baseline (zero - base) approach, accelerated best technology implementation schemes and car use intervention scenarios. The results, comparatively displayed for the different scenarios, show that the introduction of the best available technology for on-board emission control is able to substantially decrease road traffic emissions, especially when coupled to improvements in fuel properties. Moreover, the positive impacts of vehicle usage (implemented either through administrative restrictions or as positive incentives) are also proved to be of importance.