For Whom the Bailout Tolls? The Implications of the 2013 Local Elections for the Portuguese Party System

Abstract:

Local elections have generally provided useful pointers for overall party system patterns in Portugal. The 2013 local elections are of additional interest because they were the first nationwide elections in Portugal since the substantive start of the country's economic adjustment programme, initiated in mid 2011. As such, they also constitute the first electoral milestone by which to assess the Portuguese party system in a bailout context. Unlike recent bailout elections in Ireland and Greece, these local elections did not generate a major departure from the prevailing patterns of the Portuguese party system. However, we find some evidence of a challenge to the party system, with a decline in the combined share of the main parties, especially when facing independent candidates.