Finland’s general election: A rainbow could still shine

Date: 22/03/03

The Finns could get their first-ever female prime minister - maybe

IN A general election on March 16th the Centre Party, a largely rural outfit led by Anneli Jaatteenmaki, won the most seats, so edging out the ruling Social Democrats, headed by Paavo Lipponen, the prime minister. Ms Jaatteenmaki's lot got 55 seats in the 200-seat parliament, two more than Mr Lipponen's but well short of a majority. Since coalition government and consensus are the Finnish norm, horse-trading after the vote determines the real victor.

Still, it was an unexpected success for the 48-year-old Ms Jaatteenmaki, a lawyer who has formally led the Centre Party only since last year. A farmer's daughter from rural western Finland, she has a tough and steely image, yet in the campaign she was at ease with ordinary Finns, sipping coffee with shoppers or travelling between meetings on public transport.

Mr Lipponen's ruling rainbow coalition, with the widest ideological span of any in Europe, has held power since 1995 and has done a fair job. For most of that period it included the Social Democrats, the conservative National Coalition Party, the ex-communist Left Alliance, the Swedish People's Party and - until it walked out last year over a plan to build a new nuclear power plant - the Green League. This hotchpotch government has been a symbol of Finns' eagerness to work together.

Emerging from an economic crisis in the early 1990s after the fall of the next-door Soviet Union, its main trade partner, Finland has been one of Europe's punchiest economies, though in the last two years it has grown by only 0.7% and 1.7%. In the shadow of Nokia, the world's largest mobile-phone maker, a huge high-tech sector has flourished, breaking the Finns' reliance on metals and forestry-linked industry. Nokia alone makes up over 5% of the country's GDP; at its peak in 2000 it accounted for one-third of Finland's growth.

Ms Jaatteenmaki attacked the government for failing to bring down unemployment, which stands stubbornly high at around 9%. She also accused Mr Lipponen of being too close to the Americans and not taking a firm enough stand against their policy over Iraq. But, perhaps most importantly, she was simply a new face.

Her talks with the ponderous Mr Lipponen will be crucial, as her first option will be to team up in government with his Social Democrats. She and Mr Lipponen will both want the top job. The talks may founder because he may not be willing to serve under such a novice.

In policies, however, little divides them. The Centre Party is more sceptical towards the European Union and, with its rural roots, speaks up for the regions; it won only two seats in Helsinki, the capital. And though the Centre Party is certainly not socialist, the lady has taken care not repeat the mistakes of her predecessor, who nettled the Finnish trade unions. She says she will not seek to cut welfare.

Still, she must not overplay her hand. Despite her win, she knows that a combination of the other parties could still get a majority in parliament without her lot. So she has to tread warily.