Financial Integration and Valuation Effects: Globalisation or Americanization

Summary:

The paper studies the international financial integration of the G20 economies, including the underlying valuation effects. We find that international financial integration is a salient phenomenon across advanced economies, dominated by the US as the historical financial hegemon. Furthermore, we identify positive valuation effects across advanced economies, at times as large as 75% of their cumulative GDP. After the crisis, these effects have been mainly the result of large positive valuations on the US stock of foreign liabilities driven both by structural as well as cyclical factors of the US economy. Our analysis also suggests that the international financial integration may not be as "global" as perceived, but a limited number of advanced economies hold the greater amount of external assets and liabilities, and thus, are most exposed to the identified valuation effects in the US. In this context, a balanced policy mix in the US, aimed at lifting productivity and potential growth, could strengthen the contribution of the structural drivers to the US valuation effects, therefore minising the likelihood and potential impact of any cyclical corrections.

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