Face-off

A row that could run and run

WHEN half the world meets up for a chin-wag, little more than platitudes can usually be expected. Yet the two-yearly ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting) summit in Vietnam that ended on October 9th was even shorter on real substance than it might have been. The assembled 38 governments (25 from the European Union and ten from the Association of South-East Asian Nations, ASEAN, plus China, Japan and South Korea) said all the expected things about encouraging trade, protecting the environment, fighting terrorism and crime, and ridding the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons. But they could not manage a proper public rebuke (some harder words were spoken in private) of the military dictatorship in Myanmar for stifling dissent and keeping Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the country's democracy movement, under house arrest.

ASEM has said harsher things in the past about the Myanmar regime's nasty little ways. This time, however, under a deal to save the summit series from complete collapse, Myanmar was at the table (along with two other new ASEAN recruits and ten newcomers to the EU), albeit represented by its labour minister, not its boss.

Some European governments, particularly Britain's, had wanted Myanmar kept out of ASEM altogether. But the compromise was not just that Myanmar would lose face over who was invited; it was also supposed to take steps towards democracy and release Miss Suu Kyi. Since none of this had happened, on October 11th the EU's foreign ministers tightened sanctions: a visa ban on regime stalwarts will now extend to senior members of the armed forces and their families; the EU will oppose lending by international financial institutions; and EU-registered companies and organisations will be barred from financing state-owned companies with close ties to the military regime.

Such sanctions can have only modest effect. While the generals and their families may fume about being unable to send their offspring to schools and universities in Europe, most European companies, with government encouragement, already shun the place - with the exception of Total, a large French oil company. Nonetheless, the regime had been sufficiently livid at its lowly representation at the summit that it fired its civilian foreign minister, and replaced him with a general.

Yet it is Myanmar's neighbours, and especially China, that can wield the greatest influence. They prefer dialogue to confrontation. But they too seem to be losing patience with the generals' repeatedly broken promises to release Miss Suu Kyi. Nor will outside pressure let up. In 2006 Myanmar is due to chair ASEAN and host its widely attended Regional Forum. Without democratic changes, America, for one, has already said it will not show up.

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