European Parliament Election, 10-13 June 2004: Results and analysis

With a turnout of just over 45%, the sixth direct elections to the European Parliament proved a considerable embarrassment to Europe's political classes. One of the biggest disappointments was the low level of participation in the new Member States, where on average only 26.4% of those registered to vote did so. The election - the world's biggest outside India - saw 732 MEPs elected from nearly 15,000 candidates. Most parties campaigned on national issues, with those in power tending to fare badly and Eurosceptics doing relatively well. The political composition of the new Parliament will, however, largely reflect that of the previous one.

Background

A preview of the election was provided by In Focus: European Parliament Election, June 2004, March 2004, which set out the timetable:

Prior to the election, concern was expressed that Europe's citizens were not sufficiently engaged with the EU to bother voting. Amongst the initiatives intended to promote participation was a film, intended to be shown across the Member States. The European Parliament's first such effort, the film typified the difficulties of trying to produce a Europe-wide advertisement for the election. Based on the idea that life is determined by choices, the film ran into trouble in Ireland and the UK because it showed a bare nipple, in Denmark because it evoked memories of that country's rejection of the Treaty on European Union, in France because of concerns over the role of the judiciary, and in Portugal because of the spelling of the name 'Anna', while Spain agreed to show it only if Parliament paid for the final message to be translated in Spain's four regional languages (see Financial Times: Mixed messages prove hard to sell to Europe's voters).

Parliament also had to face up to the problem of its own reputation, having failed to reform its 'pay and perks' system and shed its 'gravy train' image (see Financial Times: 'Elections fought on Europe-wide themes have failed to materialise' ).

It is also the case that 'In almost every member state, governing parties are strongly committed to Europe. Voters, however, are increasingly sceptical' (see Financial Times: Europe needs to connect with its electorate).

Only the Greens conducted an EU-wide campaign, while an attempt to compare the manifestos of the Christian Democrats, Socialists and Liberals was said in European Voice to be 'a frustrating exercise' (see: Real choice for voters must wait until 2009; the Greens also had the most 'transnational' candidates: 25 of the 51 standing in nine member states - see European Voice: Transnationals set out their credentials).

European Sources Online: The Economist summarised concerns prior to the election in this way: 'The sense that ordinary Europeans are disengaging from the parliament is debilitating for an institution that already stands accused of corruption and irrelevance. And it is a worry not just for the parliament, but for the EU as a whole. Even Europhiles acknowledge that the Union has an image problem, with most ordinary Europeans seeing it as remote, incomprehensible and run by unaccountable bureaucrats' (see: Charlemagne. Barbarians at the gate).

Participation was the lowest in a European election. As the Financial Times put it: 'Ever since direct elections were introduced to the European parliament in 1979, turnout has fallen to a new low at each poll; the next day politicians promise to do more to explain the benefits of EU membership' (see: Leaders vow to do more to 'sell' benefits of membership). The BBC reported that 'officials' had called the turnout in the new Member States 'pathetically low' and warned that 'the political credibility of the whole EU was now at stake' (see: Shell-shocked Brussels seeks apathy antidote).

The Financial Times noted that the low turnout reflected a 'mood of discontent' amongst Europe's citizens. The FT also pointed out that the election would shortly be followed by the Brussels European Council on the draft Constitutional Treaty, and that the ability of Member States' governments 'to sell the constitution to hostile voters, many of whom will be asked to ratify the treaty in national referendums, was called into doubt by [the] results' (see: EU's voters hand big defeat to incumbents).

One of the countries in which a referendum will take place is the UK. According to the Financial Times, Prime Minister Blair's Labour Party 'suffered an appalling set of election results that have forced it into third place in the local council poll - the first time a governing party has suffered that ignominy in living memory ... [while in] the European elections, Labour fared worse, its vote slumping to 22 per cent, its lowest level in an national election since 1918' (see: Some home comfort for battered Blair).

The French and German governments also suffered at the polls. For President Chirac 'it was a case of deja vu: his centre-right UMP party had already been trounced by the Socialists in France's regional elections in March' said the BBC (see: Chirac brushes off Euro poll defeat), while Chancellor Schroeder's Social Democrats - which 'suffered their worst results since World War II' - were punished 'for their economic woes and painful reforms' (see: Schroeder suffers election rout).

In the view of the Financial Times, 'The fault lies with the political parties themselves. They fought their campaigns almost entirely on national issues ... [and] ... got what they asked for: a mid-term referendum on their performance at home. No wonder they were punished (see: Europe turns on its ruling parties).

However, although the impact on domestic politics was easy to see, the Financial Times thought that 'it is harder to decipher consequences for the parliament itself' (see: Poll reflects the EU's sour mood).

The results gave the parties (based on 1999-2004 groupings) the following numbers of seats:

The new Parliament will therefore largely reflect the composition of its predecessor, with the three largest parties remaining in their respective places (albeit in the case of the EPP-ED and PES with reduced memberships; the ELDR was the only one of the top three to increase its size - see European Voice: Lowest-ever turnout and an upturn for the Eurosceptics).

BBC News Online observed that a 'lacklustre campaign has produced a fragmented parliament, with more than its share of political unknowns and re-treads from national politics. ... The new European parliament is an unpredictable mixture of believers in a united Europe and Eurosceptics' (see: Apathy blights Euro poll). Two new high-profile Eurosceptic MEPs are ex-Commission official Paul van Buitenen, whose Transparent Europe party won two seats in The Netherlands, and Robert Kilroy-Silk, who pledged that his UK Independence Party would expose waste and corruption in the Parliament (see Financial Times: Holland's transparent Europe and Kilroy-Silk sparkles for party lacking French fizz).

Nevertheless, work must go on and MEPs started work in July (in what was described by European Voice as 'a hectic start to its five-year mandate' - see: Busy schedule lined up for newly elected Parliament):

• during the week beginning 5 July they started discussing the composition of the new political groups
• during the week of 12 July, MEPs bidding to become President of the Parliament will appear before the new groups
• between 19-22 July, Parliament's first plenary session will appoint Committee chairman, and MEPs will vote to appoint both a new President of the Parliament and of the Commission (hearings for the 25 proposed Commissioners in the new Commission will be held between 4 and 14 October)

Amongst developments with the political groupings has been the decision by Eurosceptic MEPs to form a 31-member group, comprising the Europe of Democracies and Diversities group (EDD), UK Independence Party, Sweden's June List, Poland's Catholic League of Families and France's Souverainistes. The new group - as yet unnamed - will campaign against ratification of the Constitutional Treaty (see European Voice: Eurosceptics form new bloc in Parliament).

A counterbalance to their Euroscepticism will presumably be provided by a new 'pro-European' group, made up of the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party (ELDR), French MEPs from the Union for French Democracy (UDF) and Italian MEPs from the Olive Tree coalition. European Voice suggested that this group 'could change the balance of power in the assembly and influence the appointment of the Union's new generation of leaders' (see: New centre group seeks 'balance of power' in Parliament).

However, as the Financial Times pointed out, 'One of the biggest unknowns will be how the 66 non-aligned MEPs ... plan to align themselves, since many of them are newcomers to the assembly' (see: Voting over - now for the wheeler dealing).

Further information within European Sources Online

European Sources Online: In Focus

	19.04.04:	European Parliament Election, June 2004, March 2004
	02.02.04:	Statute for Members of the European Parliament: Council fails to agree to European Parliament draft Decision, January 2004

European Sources Online: Topic Guides

The European Parliament

European Sources Online: Financial Times

	22.06.04:	Voters give unexpected jolt to the ruling party
	17.06.04:	Europe turns on its ruling parties
	15.06.04:	Apathy rules among newest member states
	15.06.04:	Belgium's Vlaams Blok
	15.06.04:	Blair points to silver lining as Howard reshuffles team
	15.06.04:	Denmark's June Movement
	15.06.04:	Europe needs to connect with its electorate
	15.06.04:	Eurosceptic support gave powerful view of unease
	15.06.04:	Germany's PDS
	15.06.04:	Greens cite Europe-wide focus as key to success in EU elections
	15.06.04:	Holland's transparent Europe
	15.06.04:	Kilroy-Silk sparkles for party lacking French fizz
	15.06.04:	Leaders vow to do more to 'sell' benefits of membership
	15.06.04:	Little Englanders fill the right-wing vacuum
	15.06.04:	Poland's League of Polish Families
	15.06.04:	Poll reflects the EU's sour mood
	15.06.04:	Revolt leaves Chirac three years for repairs
	15.06.04:	Schröder to pursue reforms in spite of 'bitter' election defeat
	15.06.04:	Some home comfort for battered Blair
	15.06.04:	Sweden's June List
	15.06.04:	Tory reshuffle targets public services
	15.06.04:	UKIP vows to wreck European parliament
	15.06.04:	UKIP's high point
	15.06.04:	Voting over - now for the wheeler dealing
	14.06.04:	Big UK gains for anti-Europe party
	14.06.04:	EU's voters hand big defeat to incumbents
	14.06.04:	Heseltine condemns UKIP as a disaster in waiting
	14.06.04:	Howard urged to harden anti-EU stance
	14.06.04:	New rebuff for French ruling party
	14.06.04:	Schröder's SPD suffers latest setback at the polls
	14.06.04:	Spain's Socialists win 43% of vote
	14.06.04:	Turnout low among new member states
	12.06.04:	Fringe parties expected to do well in poll
	11.06.04:	Baltic politics eclipses Europe issues
	11.06.04:	Sceptics and extremists tap a deep seam of voter ignorance
	10.06.04:	Absence of Turkish Cypriots casts a shadow over island's first EU polls
	10.06.04:	Apathy is a risky policy for Britain's voters
	10.06.04:	Dismal Thursday
	09.06.04:	Poll seen as an exercise in damage limitation for France's ruling UMP
	09.06.04:	Spaniards aspire to be 'good Europeans'
	09.06.04:	The red and yellow cards are out
	08.06.04:	All parties share the blame for voter apathy
	08.06.04:	Domestic polls threaten Verhofstadt's European dreams
	08.06.04:	German parties re-enact 2002 as voters yawn
	07.06.04:	'Elections fought on Europe-wide themes have failed to materialise'
	07.06.04:	Strasbourg 'an exciting place' as lawmakers' influence grows
	05.06.04:	UKIP seeks to make its mark
	04.06.04:	Irony may not be enough to sway Swedes
	03.06.04:	Nostalgic Czechs look back to rosy glow of communist years
	02.06.04:	Howard hits back at UKIP as wasted vote
	02.06.04:	Poland's European vote is national election bellwether
	02.06.04:	The men who made the sceptic challenge possible
	01.06.04:	Governing socialist party could face shake-up
	01.06.04:	Howard responds to UKIP poll surge
	31.05.04:	Tory peer in Europe vote row attacks leadership
	29.05.04:	Mixed messages prove hard to sell to Europe's voters
	29.05.04:	Portuguese urged to use blank vote to register protest
	28.05.04:	Italy's political pugilists resume battle
	28.05.04:	Time to vote
	27.05.04:	Europe's voters need to wake up
	27.05.04:	Iraq war set to be important issue in European elections
	27.05.04:	Turkish EU accession stirs party passions
	26.05.04:	Elections expose flaws in cross-border political groupings
	26.05.04:	National issues set to eclipse pan-European concerns as voters look to problems at home
	24.05.04:	Prodi under fire for 'ditching impartiality'
	12.05.04:	Lib Dems focus on Iraq in Europe elections
	11.05.04:	Europe a test of Tories' renewed optimism
	12.02.04:	Party for EU sceptics launched in Sweden

European Sources Online: The Economist

	12.06.04:	Charlemagne. Barbarians at the gate
	29.05.04:	European Parliament elections: Spoilers

European Sources Online: European Voice

	24.06.04:	Busy schedule lined up for newly elected Parliament
	24.06.04:	Election washout - selling the EU to a public that couldn't care less
	24.06.04:	Eurosceptics form new bloc in Parliament
	24.06.04:	New centre group seeks 'balance of power' in Parliament
	17.06.04:	Lowest-ever turnout and an upturn for the Eurosceptics
	17.06.04:	Parties weigh the odds as Parliament power is up for grabs
	17.06.04:	Time for a 'progressive' group to inject EP with new blood
	10.06.04:	Banging the drum: where they all stand
	10.06.04:	Countries get creative to sell polls
	10.06.04:	Dutch set to defy election result rules
	10.06.04:	Eurosceptics unlikely to merge, despite rise in numbers
	10.06.04:	Is Le Pen mightier than the sword?
	10.06.04:	Jitters among candidates as polls predict Eurosceptic gains in EP
	10.06.04:	Let battle commence - parties plot power sharing after marathon vote
	10.06.04:	Male candidates dominate ballot
	10.06.04:	Real choice for voters must wait until 2009
	10.06.04:	Reformers line up for chance to improve state of the Union
	10.06.04:	Transnationals set out their credentials
	10.06.04:	Voter turnout will be above 50, says Gallup poll
	10.06.04:	Watered-down Greens aim to remain a force for good
	10.06.04:	Whipping up anti-EU sentiment from ignorance
	03.06.04:	Election survey predicts only limited change
	03.06.04:	Stellar cast aims to light up lacklustre European polls
	27.05.04:	Blair and Co. set for poor results in Euro-elections
	27.05.04:	'Chaotic' Polish election planning threatens to keep Europe waiting
	20.05.04:	Poles set to avoid poll despite colourful campaigns
	13.05.04:	High-paid Italian MEPs 'least likely to turn up' report reveals
	06.05.04:	Dismay as heavyweights kicked out of Parliament
	06.05.04:	One-in-five new MEPs ready to quit
	29.04.04:	Campaign bus hits road in bid to boost elections
	29.04.04:	Liberals aim for 'freer, just and tolerant Europe'
	22.04.04:	European elections beauty contest to be launched - but will people bother to vote?

Further information can be seen in these external links:
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	Homepage
	European elections 10-13 June
	Seats in the EP (provisional)
	National parties
	Breakdown by Member State and political group
	Turnout trends at European elections
	Seats by country

Media organisations

BBC News Online

	In depth: Vote EU 2004
	14.06.04:	Poll bruising forces EU rethink
	14.06.04:	Apathy blights Euro poll
	14.06.04:	In quotes: EU election results
	14.06.04:	European press review
	14.06.04:	Newcomer Poland shuns EU polls
	14.06.04:	Schroeder suffers election rout
	14.06.04:	Chirac brushes off Euro poll defeat
	14.06.04:	UKIP makes big gains in Euro poll
	03.06.04:	Europe's Cinderella or Ugly Sister?
	15.06.04:	Shell-shocked Brussels seeks apathy antidote

Eric Davies
Researcher
Compiled: 12 July 2004

Background and reporting on the week's main stories in the European Union and the wider Europe.