European energy and transport: Scenarios on key drivers

Energy policy-making in Europe faces numerous decisions, many of which have long-term consequences, given the long lead times for energy investment and the duration of such investment over several decades. In preparing such decisions, and bearing in mind the importance of energy and transport for our daily life, it is worth taking a comprehensive view on the various aspects of the economy that could be affected. This integrated scenario analysis, covering both the supply and demand sides of energy provision, is therefore a powerful tool to support policy-making.

The European energy and transport scenarios in this publication follow the 2003 publication Trends to 2030 and provide alternative projections to 2030 of the EU-25 energy system, depending on the development of key drivers. This publication examines a wide range of quite different energy policy options over the next three decades. The alternative scenarios illustrate the broad directions in which our energy system could evolve, given different conditions for the economy, the world energy context, transport demand for energy, or given alternative policy decisions on energy efficiency, on the use of renewables, of nuclear energy, and on climate change mitigation. This publication also contains a summary of the baseline energy and transport developments up to 2030, indicating the challenges ahead.

Today's policy-makers and citizens have it within their grasp to transform Europe's energy outlook to ensure economic, social and environmentally sustainable development. This analysis of scenarios on key drivers should contribute to an informed debate among stakeholders and provide valuable pointers to future policies.