European energy and transport – Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables

This report examines several scenarios in the field of energy efficiency and renewables, reflecting policies currently under discussion. The scenarios include a high energy efficiency case and a high renewables case and a combined high efficiency and renewables scenario, in which the renewables share reaches 20 % in 2020. In addition, the report provides an update of two of the cases presented in chapter 4 of the “Scenarios on key drivers” published in 2004.

The results were derived from the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens, supported by some more specialised tools. The projections to 2030 encompass energy demand, transformation, imports and production by fuel and sector.

They also give, in the Annex, a breakdown of the main energy and transport variables for each scenario for six different regions: EU-25, EU-15, EU-10 (i.e. the new Member States since 1 May 2004), EU-27 (EU-25 plus Bulgaria and Romania), EU-28 (EU-27 plus Turkey) and Europe-30 (EU-28 plus Norway and Switzerland).