European Economic Forecast. Spring 2023

Summary:

The European Commission published on 15 May 2023 its Spring economic forecast for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone.

Further information:

The report shows the resilience of the EU's economy in a challenging global context. Lower energy prices, abating supply constraints and a strong labour market moderated growth in the first quarter of 2023, dispelling fears of a recession. This better-than-expected start to the year lifts the growth outlook for the EU economy to 1.0% in 2023 and 1.7% in the following year. Upward revisions for the Euro area are of a similar magnitude, with GDP growth now expected at 1.1% and 1.6% respectively. On the back of persisting core price pressures, inflation has also been revised upwards compared to the previous report, to 5.8% in 2023 and 2.8% in the following year in the Euro area.

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Official

European Commission: Economic Forecasts: Spring 2023 Economic Forecast: an improved outlook amid persistent challenges https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/spring-2023-economic-forecast-improved-outlook-amid-persistent-challenges_en

European Commission: Press Release, 15/05/2023: Spring 2023 Economic Forecast: An improved outlook amid persistent challenges https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_2723

European Commission: Remarks by Commissioner Gentiloni at the press conference on the Spring 2023 Economic Forecast (15 May 2023) https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_23_2762

Portuguese Government: News, 15/05/2023: Portuguese Economy expected to grow double that of the Euro Area https://www.portugal.gov.pt/en/gc23/communication/news-item?i=portuguese-economy-expected-to-grow-double-the-euro-area

Slovenian Government: News, 15/05/2023: The European Commission has enhanced the economic growth forecast for Slovenia https://www.gov.si/en/news/2023-05-15-the-european-commission-has-enhanced-the-economic-growth-forecast-for-slovenia/

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News

The Guardian, 15/05/2023: European economy expected to grow faster than forecast, says EU https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/15/european-economy-expected-to-grow-faster-than-forecast-says-eu

Associated Press (AP News), 15/05/2023: Europe’s economic outlook brightens a little after avoiding recession. But inflation still squeezes https://apnews.com/article/europe-economy-growth-inflation-4139d029bd1c18472b29b92241500bd2

Reuters, 15/05/2023: EU exec sees stronger 2023, 2024 euro zone growth, but higher inflation https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-exec-sees-stronger-2023-2024-euro-zone-growth-higher-inflation-2023-05-15/

RTÉ News, 15/05/2023: European Commission sees 'solid' Irish economic growth this year and next https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2023/0515/1383662-euro-zone-economic-growth-forecasts/

Bloomberg, 15/05/2023: Euro-Zone Inflation Outlook Raised by EU on Surge in Core Prices https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-15/euro-zone-inflation-outlook-raised-by-eu-on-surge-in-core-prices

Euronews, 15/05/2023: Falling energy prices boost EU's growth outlook, Commission says https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/05/15/falling-energy-prices-boost-eus-growth-outlook-commission-says

The Irish Times, 15/05/2023: Former bailout countries lead EU growth https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2023/05/15/former-bailout-countries-lead-eu-growth/

Le Monde, 16/05/2023: European Commission forecasts positive economic growth for 2024 https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/05/16/european-commission-forecasts-positive-economic-growth-for-2024_6026809_19.html

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