Europe awaits George Bush. When style and substance meet

The American president's visit to Europe is an impressive gesture in itself - but it will not untie every transatlantic knot

PRESIDENTIAL visits are always long on pageantry and symbolism - and George Bush's trip to Europe next week will be no different.

The president will spend three nights in Brussels, the headquarters of both NATO and the European Union. He will dine with Jacques Chirac, France's president, travel on to Germany for a separate meeting with Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, and finally to Slovakia, to see President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Simply by making such a long visit to Europe early in his second term, Mr Bush is sending a message: he wants to re-establish smooth and friendly relations with European allies. A president who has been widely portrayed within Europe as an arrogant, unilateralist warmonger will be keen to show his softer side. As José Barroso, president of the European Commission in Brussels puts it: “Sometimes in foreign policy, style is substance.” But it would be a pity if style alone prevailed, for there is a long list of issues to discuss.

*Iraq: The situation in Iraq remains the dominant issue of the day. Although several European countries have troops there - notably Britain, Italy and Poland - the European view has tended to be that the Americans are engaged in a struggling and mistaken venture, doomed to turn out badly. This view has shifted a little since the success of the Iraqi elections. And even before that, a feeling was growing in Brussels that Europeans should be seen to “reach out” to the Americans over Iraq. Gestures will be made during the Bush visit. NATO is likely to announce that all its members will contribute in some way to training Iraq's security forces - though they can choose to do so inside the country or outside. The EU will offer more aid and training for Iraqi police and judges. The Americans would prefer more European boots on the ground, but will welcome the fact that all EU and NATO states are making at least a token commitment.

*The Middle East: Here too, the atmosphere has become more positive. The death of Yasser Arafat and the election of Mahmoud Abbas seem to have opened the way for the more energetic American attention to peacemaking that Europeans had been urging. EU diplomats also say that Condoleezza Rice, the new secretary of state, is taking a slightly tougher line with Israel. But new divisions could start over Syria. America has withdrawn its ambassador to Damascus, after the murder of Rafik Hariri, Lebanon's ex-prime minister. The Europeans “so far” see no need to change their line.

*Iran: Americans and Europeans share a vision of a responsible, democratic and non-nuclear Iran. But the Americans have been sceptical about the usefulness of European diplomatic efforts to persuade the Iranians to abandon their nuclear ambitions. The Europeans fear the Americans are committed to “regime change” in Iran, rather than the preferred European option of a “grand bargain ” - -in which Iran might adopt a more responsible position, in return for the likes of WTO membership and IMF loans. Lurking in the background is fear among Europe's politicians, and voters, that Americans may use force - or sanction an Israeli attack - to thwart Iran's nuclear aims. This row is likely to be papered over during the visit. But there will be no meeting of minds.

*China: The United States is unhappy that the EU is moving towards lifting its arms embargo on China. The EU has tried to persuade the Americans this can be done without harming their strategic interests. On her recent visit to Europe, Ms Rice signalled that while her administration could reluctantly accept an EU decision - hedged around with sufficient safeguards - Congress was likely to react very unfavourably. The Europeans know that this is not bluff, and are nervous. But they are still likely to lift the embargo.

*Kyoto: When President Bush arrives at EU headquarters in Brussels, he will see, quite nearby, a giant inflatable balloon celebrating the entry into force of the Kyoto treaty on global warming: a not-so-subtle message to the visitor that Europe has kept Kyoto alive, despite his opposition. What the Europeans would love is some hint that the Bush administration may make a positive move over global warming, even if signing Kyoto is too much. Nothing will happen next week - although Britain is still hoping for an American shift during its presidency of the G8 rich countries' club this year.

*The Balkans: Something will have to be done about the status of Kosovo over the course of 2005. For once, the EU and America see largely eye-to-eye, agreeing that Kosovo is heading towards something like statehood. Objections to this are likely to come from Moscow and Belgrade.

*The International Criminal Court: The Europeans want to use the recently established International Criminal Court in The Hague to try possible crimes committed in Darfur. The Americans are opposed on ideological grounds and would prefer to set up an ad hoc tribunal, which the Europeans consider an inefficient solution. An EU diplomat comments acidly: “The Americans seem unable to decide which they hate more - genocide or the ICC.” This will not be resolved during the Bush visit.

*The United Nations: The impact of the oil-for-food scandal on the UN and on Kofi Annan, its secretary-general, has worried some in Europe. But Europeans reckon the Bush administration is backing away from efforts to unseat Mr Annan.

*European integration: Europe's governments are unsettled by signs of America reconsidering its traditional support for European unification. With Euroscepticism on the rise in Europe, an American effort to “divide and rule” could have a seriously disruptive effect. Ms Rice said some warm things about European unity on her recent visit to the old continent, and President Bush will do likewise. Behind the scenes, however, the Washington debate will continue. That is hardly surprising: while the Europeans will lay out the welcome mat next week, many do see the EU as a counterweight to America.

Article previews the visit of US President Bush to Europe, 21-24 February 2005.

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