Europe and Iran. A common flop

The Europeans' soft approach to Iran seems to have failed

IT WAS worth a try. But hope is fading in Britain, France and Germany that engagement with Iran might succeed, where America's cold shoulder failed, in coaxing the regime in Tehran into giving up the nuclear experiments and technologies that it has spent 18 years hiding from the world.

Last October, the three European countries were cock-a-hoop over a deal to get Iran to come clean about its nuclear dabblings to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and to suspend its recently uncovered uranium-enrichment programme. In return, the European trio agreed to resist American pressure to report Iran's transgressions to the UN Security Council. Had “temporary” suspension turned permanent, ridding Iran of technologies that the government insists are for peaceful purposes but which can also make bomb material, the Europeans would have agreed to sell other technologies to the Iranians.

For the Europeans, the deal was the sweeter because it showed a new unity after the bitter divisions over Iraq, argues Steven Everts in a report for the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. It bolstered the case for non-proliferation-by-inspection rather than force, and showed that multilateral diplomacy and “soft power” could work even on hard problems. And success would have shown that the European Union's common foreign policy (the full EU backed the big three) could make its weight felt beyond its own backyard.

So why has the diplomacy soured? Censured again last month by the IAEA's 35-country board for the gaps in its nuclear story, Iran last week wrote to the Europeans, accusing them of failing to keep their side of the October bargain. The Iranians now say they will restart the manufacture and testing of their uranium-enrichment machines at a pilot plant at Natanz.

Inspectors are still at work in Iran: this week they took samples at what the government admits is a military site (though not a nuclear one), called Lavizan, in Tehran, where recent satellite photographs showed that buildings had been demolished and topsoil carted away. They are due to report to the IAEA board in September. Iran insists its case should be dropped. That is unlikely to happen.

If Iran disrupts inspections or pulls out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the Europeans would have to go to the UN. More likely, though, it will press on with its enrichment preparations, contrary to the IAEA's request and the October deal. Iran is also building a heavy-water reactor that could produce plutonium, another bomb ingredient. Neither technology is outlawed by the NPT, so long as it is for peaceful use. Despite having only a limited nuclear-energy programme, Iran claims an inalienable “right” to both. But past violations and unexplained traces of (potentially militarily useful) highly enriched uranium suggest that Iran is using the cover of electricity generation to acquire nuclear-weapons capability.

The premise of the October deal was that, offered a face-saving way to come clean and find a better relationship with the West, Iran would quietly drop any weapons ambitions. Although the premise appears to have been wrong, the Europeans have, so far, merely held up negotiations on a new trade and co-operation agreement. They have other levers at their disposal: some 40% of Iran's imports come from the EU which, with Japan, is also Iran's best hope for badly needed investment in its oil and gas industries.

Iran and the Europeans seem now to be playing for time, awaiting the outcome of November's presidential election in America. But whoever wins, America is unlikely to tolerate a nuclear-arming Iran. Some Europeans hope that a new administration might try talking to Iran. But, with America tied up in Iraq, the Iranians may calculate that time is on their side and - so long as the IAEA finds nothing new - that the Europeans will never agree among themselves to a tougher line. If so, far from being a success for Europe's common foreign policy, Iran could become a big irritant in relations between America and Europe.

Article suggest that the Europeans' soft approach to Iran seems to have failed.