Europe, America and Iran. Jaw-jaw, for now

But is diplomacy doomed?

IF THE time for diplomacy is now, as Condoleezza Rice, George Bush's new secretary of state, famously puts it, those hoping to block Iran's nuclear ambitions have a funny way of showing it. Mr Bush says he supports the diplomatic efforts of Britain, France and Germany to talk Iran out of its technology to produce uranium and plutonium (both possible bomb ingredients), though he refuses to rule out other options, including military ones. And he has let his vice-president, Dick Cheney, muse aloud that no matter how patient America remains with Iran, a twitchy Israel might be less so.

Iran's defence minister, responding to a report in the New Yorker that American forces were already on Iranian soil scouting out likely nuclear, chemical and biological targets, hinted that his country already has the bomb. At least, it is hard to imagine what else he could have meant by “the greatest deterrent force”.

Does diplomacy stand a chance? The first deadline for the Europeans and the Iranians to come up with the bones of a tension-defusing deal, following the “temporary” suspension of Iran's enrichment efforts in November, is March, but the going is tough. The Europeans want to make the suspension permanent. Iran says no. Britain's foreign secretary, in Washington this week to confer with Ms Rice, had previously described the use of force against Iran as “inconceivable”. Mr Cheney may have been attempting to strengthen the Europeans' negotiating hand - and stiffen spines - by suggesting that, if diplomacy fails, others could conceivably react more forcefully.

At the heart of the wrangle are “objective guarantees” about Iran's nuclear intentions. It says it wants to produce uranium only as fuel for nuclear power. But the Europeans point out that once it has mastered making low-enriched uranium needed for power reactors, it would also be able to make the highly-enriched sort needed for bombs. Given its proven record of nuclear cheating, they want Iran out of the nuclear-fuel business entirely. In return they are offering better trade and political relations, and help with other nuclear technologies.

Possibly no inducements would work. But to offer big enough carrots to test that proposition, the Europeans will eventually need America's help. So far, the Bush administration has balked: it does not want to reward a country that breaks its nuclear promises, supports terrorist groups and denies Israel's right to exist. Only the prospect of real guarantees against future nuclear misconduct might tempt America to join the diplomacy.

Iran offers only “assurances”. What might these be? Offering to allow international supervision of any further fuel-enriching, perhaps. Possibly keeping only its small pilot enrichment plant going, while mothballing the larger one it has been building. But leaving any enrichment equipment in Iran would also leave it with the option of making a bomb.

Some combination of offers and threats may yet deflect Iran from further enrichment work. That would take concerted pressure from Europe, America and others, including Russia and China. If the Europeans get nowhere, Iran's nuclear transgressions could be reported to the UN Security Council. But would it then impose sanctions that would give Iran pause?

Iran is dangling oil and gas contracts before China, Russia and others to persuade them to break ranks. It is also playing for time. It has already presented the Europeans with a long and impossible list of security demands. Another tactic might be to agree to extend the enrichment suspension, but only in return for concessions that loosen the constraints it imposes - rather as North Korea did in its now-abandoned 1994 nuclear deal with America.

As the diplomatic going gets stickier, expect more of the blame game. Just as America attempted to use Israel's concerns to raise the stakes (provoking the retort from Israel's vice-premier that Iran's nuclear sins should be everybody's business), so the Iranians call America “crazy” for supposedly obstructing diplomacy.

Some Europeans sing a similar tune. But for them this is a dangerous game. If Iran succeeds in blocking agreement on sanctions at the Security Council, it might calculate it was home free. Then some of those military options being talked about, however imperfect, may yet be tried.

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