EU sanctions: exit strategies / Sanctions: moving targets and goalposts

Issue Alert José Luengo-Cabrera and Clara Portela.

The agreement reached in Vienna in July 2015 over the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) between Iran and the E3+3 (France, Germany, the UK, China, Russia and the US) lays the ground for the gradual lifting of restrictive measures imposed against the Islamic Republic. Having already activated a first round of limited (and reversible) sanctions relief alongside the US in January 2014, the EU is now set to adopt an ‘exit strategy’: a procedural roadmap to ease punitive measures in accordance with Iranian compliance.

With a track record of effectively rewarding acquiescent targets, the EU stands out as a responsive ‘sanctioner’. In contrast to the US, the EU has repeatedly adopted a strategy aimed at incentivising progressive compliance with economic and diplomatic pay-offs.

Read also the separate EUISS Issue Alert, No.36 July 2015: Sanctions: moving targets and goalposts, by Francesco Giumelli.

As the cases of Iran and Russia show, ‘sanctions targets are less like static archery butts than live game, ducking and weaving to avoid projectiles’ (EUISS Brief 13). Yet it is not only the targets of sanctions – governments, individuals or organisations – which are moving: the archers themselves change positions.

States imposing sanctions can change their minds about the reasons which initially led to the decision to adopt sanctions. And not only can targets alter their tactics: they can also unexpectedly become allies of the archers.

ESO: Background information: Iran nuclear: Renewed hopes of deal spark US warning http://www.europeansources.info/record/iran-nuclear-talks-in-final-phase-iran-nuclear-agreement-a-good-deal-for-now/

EUISS: Issue Alert, No.36, July 2015: Sanctions: moving targets and goalposts https://publications.europa.eu/s/dmAx

EU: EEAS: Common Foreign & Security Policy (CFSP): Sanctions http://eeas.europa.eu/cfsp/sanctions/index_en.htm

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