EU newlyweds face first marriage trial

By Dana Spinant

Date: 29/04/04

THE present EU harmony will face its first test, as foreign ministers resume negotiations on the European constitution, on 17 May. Following the Spanish elections, which brought to power a more compromise-driven Socialist government, and ahead of an imminent change in power in Poland, EU leaders announced that a constitution will be adopted by 17 June, at their next summit.

However, serious obstacles still threaten to obstruct a deal.

As Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern does not count on a miracle solution, unlike his predecessor at the EU's helm, Italian Silvio Berlusconi, he has urged that all issues - barring two or three crucial ones - be resolved before the summit.

The 25 ministers are under pressure to find agreement on several subjects in just one negotiation session (17-18 May), although they could hold a second round of talks on 24 May.

The main issues on which an agreement must be found are:

• The composition of the European Commission;
• the system of voting in the Council of Ministers;
• the distribution of seats in the European Parliament;
• the national veto over decisions concerning migrant workers' freedom of movement;
• the veto right on cooperation on criminal matters;
• decision-making for adopting the EU budget (which of the Council or Parliament has the last word);
• qualified majority or unanimity voting on the Union's multiannual budget (the financial perspectives), with the Netherlands and the UK standing firm on keeping their veto rights;
• a precise definition of member states' obligation to help other member states that are victims of aggression;
• a mention of God (Poland, Italy, Spain are to insist on this);
• an exact definition of the future foreign affairs minister's "double-hatting" (combining a commissioner's job with that of a Council official), and;
• energy policy (the Commission insists that a late addition would breach the single market by allowing member states to "take the necessary measures to ensure their energy supply").

Foreign ministers must find agreement on all issues but the first three - it will be the privilege of government leaders to strike a deal on the "power questions".

Although the Irish presidency has not presented a compromise proposal on institutions, several options are being weighed by member states behind the scenes.

Concerning the Commission, the likely compromise is that each member state will, in the beginning, appoint one commissioner, but the College's membership will be reduced to two-thirds of the number of states "when the new member states are fully integrated in the EU", said one Commission official.

When the Union consists of 27 states, for instance, the Commission would have 18 members. The likely dates for the reduction to take place are 2014 or 2009, depending on the date when a new system of voting in the Council is introduced. On this, the double majority principle proposed by the Convention's draft constitution is set to be accepted, but the threshold of the number of states and of the population necessary for decisions to be taken are yet to be determined. Under the Convention's plan, a qualified majority would require the backing of a majority of states representing 60% of the Union's population.

New figures under discussion are 60% of the states, representing 60% of the population, or 55%/55%. A more controversial threshold, which would make reaching decisions more difficult, is 55% of states representing 65% of the population.

Another option would be to allow the system of voting weights introduced by the Nice Treaty to be used as an "emergency brake" - if one state risks being outvoted in the Council, its representative can ask for a vote to be held under the Nice provisions.

A third alternative would be to introduce two "keys" to check the blocking minority. Under this, if the population threshold is 60%, the blocking minority (above 40%) must be formed by a minimum number of states (five, for instance). This would be a way of protecting small states against large ones, to avoid for example France, Germany and the UK, which together account for 44% of the Union's population, blocking decisions against the will of the other 22 states.

The second "key" refers to the number of states; if 50% of states can block a decision, they must represent at least a certain percentage of the Union's population - to avoid 13 small countries representing a little over 10% of the citizens, for instance, blocking decisions.

The distribution of seats in Parliament will be decided in connection with the choice of the system of voting in Council, with seats likely to be granted as a consolation prize for those states that accept a deterioration of their voting power. Poland and Spain are the two likely to lose the most in the Council, in comparison to the Nice system, and are sure to be given a few more Parliamentary seats.

Although Ahern insisted no new issues should be brought to the table in addition to those left pending after negotiations under the Italian presidency, some member states would like to reopen a number of points.

The UK wants to give national parliaments the power to block Commission proposals, if they believe they breach the subsidiarity principle (under which decisions should be taken at the most appropriate level).

The French centre-right government, after a bruising local election in March, is set to insist on strengthening the social affairs aspect of the constitution. The Spanish government is to ask that Catalan be granted the status of an official language into which EU treaties are translated, as part of the new cabinet's agreement with Catalan parties.

The constitution is likely to be adopted on 17 June. But there will be no honeymoon atmosphere at the ministers' negotiations on 17 May, or at the next EU summit.

European Union Foreign Ministers will resume discussions on the proposed EU constitution on 17 May 2004.