EU lures Balkan states down path of reform

Date: 06/07/2000

A planned summit with leaders of the former Yugoslavian republics in the autumn is aimed, in the words of French President Jacques Chirac, at creating a "new dynamic" in the Balkans. Simon Taylor reports on the EU's efforts to bring stability and prosperity to the region

THE EU's approach to the western Balkans is looking increasingly like the old Cold War domino theory in reverse.

Where once the West's Sovietologists feared that Communist revolution in one country could spread across the globe, the Union is now hoping that the Balkan states will be inspired by the example of countries which have already moved closer to the EU to go down the path of reform.

French President Jacques Chirac has already proposed holding a planned summit with leaders of the former Yugoslavian republics in Croatia this autumn in an attempt to hold up Zagreb's progress as a model for the rest of region.

Chirac said at the Feira summit that the meeting would allow the Union to "create a new dynamic" in the Balkans.

France hopes that staging the summit in Croatia will send a positive signal to other countries in the region about the benefits of better relations with the EU in the run-up to a series of crucial elections across the Balkans over the next six months. As Chirac said: "It will remind the Serbian people that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia has a vocation to benefit from EU aid and support when they get rid of the regime of Milosevic."

While Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic is tightening his grip on power in Belgrade with a clampdown on the independent media, Croatia is the jewel in the crown of the Union's strategy for south-eastern Europe.

The EU has already moved to reward the new centre-left government's determination to pursue economic reform and shun the nationalistic legacy of late President Franjo Tudjman's regime by offering Zagreb the chance to negotiate a new accord which would anchor Croatia in the Union fold.

The stabilisation and association agreement is the cornerstone of the EU's approach to the Balkan states, giving countries which sign up to them a range of economic and political benefits.

External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten and Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana stressed the importance of the mechanism in a joint report presented to EU leaders at Feira. "The purpose of the stability and association process, which is to integrate the countries of the region into European structures, is increasingly well understood. To varying degrees it acts as a catalyst in the reform process and helps all countries to see the decisions they take internally in the wider European context," they wrote.

But the process is also designed to create a form of a final waiting room before countries qualify as formal candidates for full Union membership.

Together with Croatia, the other Balkan success story has been the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia. Skopje's steady progress in implementing economic reforms and political stability have also won it the chance to negotiate a stability and association agreement with the EU. Two sessions of talks have already been held and more will take place in the autumn.

But the picture of the rest of the region is less rosy. The slow pace of economic reform in Albania means Tirana has a great deal of ground to make up before the Union will consider it ready to start negotiations on a stability agreement. To encourage it to make the necessary effort, Albania will also be invited to the summit in Zagreb, even though it was never part of Yugoslavia.

Despite five years of efforts by the international community and several billion euro of aid, the situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina also leaves a lot to be desired.

The EU has told Sarajevo that it has a lot more work to do before it can start negotiations on a stability and association agreement, and attempts to build an effective civilian administration and a pluralistic political culture are being hampered by the dominance of parts of the economy by distinct ethnic groups.

A meeting of the peace implementation council in late May identified a range of economic reform priorities essential to help the country get out of its current backwater. These include breaking the stranglehold of parties on economic and commercial life, simplifying regulations to make it easier for entrepreneurs to do business, and ensuring effective regulation of the telecoms, energy and services sectors.

While the western powers" efforts have at least managed to keep the peace between ethnic groups in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the ongoing test of whether Serbs and ethnic Albanians can live together in Kosovo is being played out on the world's television screens.

An estimated 360,000 Serbs are believed to have fled Kosovo since the end of NATO's bombing campaign last June amid fears of attacks from ethnic Albanians. Despite major efforts to restore the rule of law in the province, a shortage of police officers and a lack of experienced judges has led to claims that violent factions on both sides are able to "murder with impunity".

However, last week saw a minor breakthrough in efforts to restore normality to Kosovo again with the decision of the Serb National Council of Kosovo to rejoin the interim administrative structures set up by the United Nations. Solana welcomed the news, saying: "Cooperation, not confrontation, is the only way to improve the situation of Serbs in Kosovo." He also promised that the Union would do its best to guarantee the safety of Kosovo Serbs.

But, as Solana stressed in his first speech to the UN in New York last week, the biggest barrier to progress in the region is still the Milosevic regime's grip on power in Belgrade.

Over the coming months, the EU will intensify its efforts to reach out to opposition groups in Serbia in a bid to strengthen political support for those intent on ousting Milosevic and turning back towards Europe. The European Commission has already held out the prospect of €2.3 billion in aid for Serbia if and when it rejoins the European family, although it it is far from certain that Union governments will agree to the Commission waving their money around in such a seemingly cavalier way.

Serbian opposition groups will also be invited to Chirac's summit, which will probably be held in October, ahead of crucial municipal and federal elections in Yugoslavia scheduled for November.

In addition, the EU will try to fine-tune its carrot-and-stick approach, focusing economic sanctions on Milosevic's côterie and offering trade concessions to companies which can prove that they are not linked to the regime. This will be accompanied by other measures building on the energy for democracy programme which supplied heating oil to towns run by democratic forces. Plans to supply schools with books and fund construction projects are also being drawn up.

But hopes that the international community's efforts would produce a major political breakthrough have been put into perspective by the results of recent elections in the Yugoslavian republic of Montenegro. Despite a major display of support from the Union for the reformist government of President Milo Djukanovic, his party actually lost seats in one area where the local population was dominated by retired Serbian military personnel, suggesting that Milosevic's nationalist slogans are still more attractive that his western opponents believe. Djukanovic's party did, however, make gains in the Montenegrin capital of Podgorica.

Despite the scale of the challenge which lies ahead, Solana insisted in his speech to the UN that he remained "optimistic" about the future of the region.

"The best chance for realising long-term viability in the Balkans is through the steady integration of the region into the European mainstream," he told the Security Council. But he admitted that this would not happen "overnight", adding: "It is a long-term process."

The next six months will give a good guide to just how long it is likely to take.

Major feature. A planned summit with leaders of the former Yugoslavian republics in autumn 2000 is aimed, in the words of French President Jacques Chirac, at creating a 'new dynamic' in the Balkans. Article reports on the EU's efforts to bring stability and prosperity to the region.