EU leaders face juggling act with new Iran regime

Date: 11/09/1997

By Mark Turner

SINCE the election of a new and, to the West's delight, more moderate government in Iran, Europe's leaders have found themselves in something of a quandary.

On the one hand, they would like to make a new start in relations with the country, which have soured badly since a German court found in April that Tehran had sponsored terrorist acts.

On the other hand, they are wary of the hard-line and anti-Western elements which persist in Iran, and fear doing anything which could damage relations between Brussels and the United States.

Whether the EU's foreign ministers can juggle the myriad of political, trading and even moral issues involved when they meet next Monday (15 September) is still very much an open question.

At stake lie not only short-term European economic interests, but also, some feel, the very future of liberalism in the Middle East.

The election of the moderate Mohammed Khatami to Iran's presidency has opened a window of opportunity for reform in Iran that under different circumstances would have brought Europe scrambling to offer its support.

The appointments of considerably more pro-EU Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi, Vice-President Massumeh Ebtekar (a woman), and progressive Ataollah Mohajerami to the culture and Islamic guidance ministry offer a breath of fresh air that few expected even a few months ago.

German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel suggested in late August that he would be willing to deal more openly with Iran, after Kharrazi expressed a willingness to meet with his foreign counterparts.

Yet there is a pervading sense in Brussels that the changes are, as German Chancellor Helmut Kohl said, “not fundamental”.

The relative silence from Iran's conservative parliament over the new cabinet may be a temporary lull, which could end once the memory of Khatami's landslide victory begins to fade.

Warnings from the more right-wing elements of the country's religious hierarchy have also caused concern.

“The defence of Islam, Islamic principles and the revolution is a stable policy, and will be respected no matter which faction is in power,” stressed Ayatollah Ahmed Janati - who is close to Ayatollah Ali Khameni - shortly after the election.

These are not empty claims. Khameni remains the country's 'Supreme Guide', with a tight reign on foreign policy, and the old, conservative, Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati has been appointed as his adviser.

Furthermore, outgoing President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has moved to the notorious 'expediency council' - which 'reconciles' laws passed by parliament with Islamic Shariah law - and many feel he will soon become very powerful indeed.

The implications have not been lost on the US, which is not yet willing to change its policy towards the Islamic Republic and was deeply concerned about an EU backtrack following Kinkel's comments.

Perhaps most importantly for Europe, there are few indications that - for the time being at least - the US will temper its controversial D'Amato law, which forbids foreign companies from investing in Iran.

During three-way talks between the EU, the US and Canada in July, the Washington administration held out little hope of an immediate waiver, although it did give some hints that it would put pressure on Congress to ease up as the year progressed.

Another meeting in October could see further developments.

The more immediate question facing Europe's foreign ministers next week is how to manage the return of their ambassadors to Iran.

Since they withdrew - as a unit - following the so-called Mykonos judgement, Tehran has made it clear that it would not welcome them back without some measure of atonement. An August compromise suggested that they would go back in phases, with German ambassador Horst Beschmann bringing up the rear.

A recent meeting of Union political directors, however, made it clear that that was unacceptable. The withdrawal of ambassadors following the April judgement had been significant as a show of EU unity, and its governments were unwilling to allow any of their representatives to be singled out now.

Unfortunately, this stance has led to a stand-off that experts fear could persist for some time.

Nonetheless, Luxembourg presidency officials are working hard to broker an agreement with Iranian counterparts, and will attempt to find some solution in time for the United Nations General Assembly next week.

A high-level rapprochement may follow.