EU energy policy and future European energy markets: Consequences for the central and east European states

Abstract:

This working paper explores the European Union vector in the Central and East European (CEE) energy situation, in particular in terms of the CEE countries' energy relationship with Russia. Attention is paid not only to concrete EU energy policies but also to the larger question of European energy markets. EU policies impact the CEE states' energy relationship with Russia through specific EU requirements vis-á-vis the candidate countries, through the side-effects of other EU policies, through the Energy Charter and the Energy Dialogue process with Russia, and through new trends in EU energy thinking and policy striving for the establishment of a more open gas market in Europe. The way these trends and measures will impact the CEE states has to do both with the structural legacies of the COMECON system in these countries - transport and structural dependency, particular energy mixes, low energy efficiency - as well as with the specific nature of their relationship with the EU: these countries are to join the EU at a time of deepened integration and of an unprecedented role of energy in EU policy. The picture that emerges is a mixed one: some of the EU policies and initiatives would greatly increase the CEE states' dependency on energy imports, and thus, on Russian energy, while some would help in the management of this dependency. But it becomes clear that energy security issues will become increasingly important for the CEE states in the next two decades, and this factor should be taken into account in discussions about these countries' integration into the EU.