EU close to Iran response

By Andrew Beatty

Date: 31/03/05

European negotiators will respond to an Iranian offer to limit the country's nuclear programme "within the next few weeks", diplomats said on Wednesday (30 March).

European diplomats said that the so-called EU3 of France, Germany and the UK were studying a proposal presented by Iran last week in Paris which would allow Tehran to engage in limited uranium enrichment activities.

Negotiators had proposed that Iran would build a scaled-down version of an original plan that would have seen Iran construct tens of thousands of centrifuges to enrich uranium.

But despite the offer failing to meet the crucial demand that Iran halt all uranium enrichment activities, it is still being seriously considered. "It was obviously well thought through," said one diplomat. Tehran hopes that the offer will satisfy the EU's demand for 'objective guarantees', although this appears unlikely.

"There are red lines," said one source, "the best objective guarantee, the only one, is that they give up the fuel cycle completely."

Although the EU3 are unlikely to take up the offer in its current form, it is likely to feed into further talks. No firm date has been set for talks to continue, but diplomats say there is a possibility of a meeting at the end of April, possibly in Tehran.

Despite the slow progress so far, the EU3 appear happy to continue talks. But diplomats and observers are warning that upcoming presidential elections in Iran and congressional elections in the United States could hamper the negotiations.

On 17 June Iranians will vote for a new president. Many liberal candidates are likely to be excluded and analysts expect the incumbent Mohamed Khatami to be replaced by a hard-liner. Khatami, although weak, was widely seen as a moderating force in Iranian politics.

According to Wayne White, a former deputy director and senior analyst at the US State Department's Bureau of Intelligence, Iran's elections are likely to raise the rhetoric levels.

He said: "Iran is not so different to European countries, for example, elections force politicians to take a harder stance on issues which are considered to be nationalist issues."

White said that although Iranian public opinion did not support a nuclear weapon's programme, heightened nationalist sentiment could still affect the regime's negotiating position.

"Iranians do not see this through the prism of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The average Iranian objects to the fact that other people are trying to tell Iran what they can and cannot do," he said.

"Iran after the [Iran-Iraq] war seemed more interested in unconventional weapons. WMD, even nuclear, are not that expensive in comparison with the cost of replacing air force and artillery."

Iran's new cabinet is unlikely to be installed before the autumn and little progress on negotiations is expected before then. But Washington too is set to gear itself up for mid-term congressional elections which take place in 2006.

Steve Wright, Heidi Huuhtanen and Tapani Vaahtoranta at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs warned that this could also colour the backdrop of the talks.

"It is important to recognise that the Senate and the House both passed legislation in 2004 that completely rejects Iran's legitimate right to have a nuclear power programme," they said in a recent report.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is to discuss Iran's nuclear programme again in June.

According to the article the so-called EU3 of France, Germany and the UK were studying a proposal presented by Iran in late March 2005 in Paris which would allow Tehran to engage in limited uranium enrichment activities. The European negotiators were planning to respond to an Iranian offer to limit the country's nuclear programme within the following weeks diplomats said on 30 March 2005.