EU and Russia on brink of diplomatic deep-freeze

Failure to launch negotiations on a new EU-Russia agreement at a summit on Friday (18 May) will put talks on ice for almost a year, diplomats have warned.

EU and Russian diplomats have acknowledged that there is little chance of beginning talks on boosting political and economic ties at the summit, in the Russian city of Samara, as tensions over a Russian ban on Polish meat imports and cuts in energy supplies to a Lithuanian refinery as well as a standoff with Estonia have damaged EU-Russian relations. The accord would replace the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement, which expires at the end of this year.

Diplomats are now warning that talks will be delayed until after Duma elections scheduled for December and presidential elections expected in March 2008.

"The closer we get to the elections, the more difficult negotiations will be," said a senior EU diplomat.

Other EU diplomats echoed the concern that it would be difficult for Moscow to make compromises to allow talks to begin, as elections approach.

Russia’s Ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov acknowledged that elections would make negotiations difficult.

"Any pre-election period leads to a heating up of the debate, including the foreign policy debate," said Chizhov. But he added that he hoped elections would not be "detrimental to overall relations".

Friday’s talks between EU leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be tense because of disputes over Russia’s membership of the World Trade Organization, the future of Kosovo, the ban on Polish meat, US plans to build a missile shield on European soil and energy concerns.

Yesterday (15 May) German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier travelled to Moscow for crisis talks with Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, to try to salvage the summit.

More EU member states are pushing for a harder line on Russia than in the past. "Preparation for the summit is difficult. There are a series of problems that have not been resolved," Steinmeier said, after the talks with Putin.

The EU will demand at the summit that Russia takes steps to ensure that Duma and presidential elections are free and fair and will ask it to issue early invitations for monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the polls.

The request is likely to increase friction between the two sides.

"I don’t think the EU is on the governing body of the OSCE," Chizhov said.

Since Putin took power Russia has frequently clashed with the OSCE. Lavrov has described the body’s election monitoring arm as a "politicised organisation".

But diplomats said that the conduct of the elections would be the litmus test for EU-Russian relations.

An internal EU report on the human rights situation in Russia, prepared ahead of the summit, described "increasing concerns over the deteriorating human rights situation in Russia".

The report, jointly produced by the Commission, the secretariat of the Council of Ministers and the EU presidency, pointed to "increasing constraints" on civil society and reduced "media pluralism" in Russia.

A survey carried out in April by the Levada Centre, a Russian polling firm, showed that 39% of Russians expected the local authorities to rig the elections.

At Friday’s summit, the EU and Russia are to establish an early warning mechanism to help manage disruptions of energy supplies from Russia.

They are also expected to agree on a date for a deal easing visa restrictions for Russians entering the EU and an accord on sending illegal migrants back to Russia.

EU officials said on Monday (14 May) that Russia’s proposals to build a pipeline transporting Turkmen and Kazakh gas to Europe via its territory will also be discussed. The proposal rivals an EU-backed project that would bring central Asian gas across the Caspian Sea, avoiding Russia.

Failure to launch negotiations on a new EU-Russia agreement at a summit on Friday (18 May) will put talks on ice for almost a year, diplomats have warned.