Erdogan gives, now he wants to receive

On the eve of the 14-15 December EU summit, the mood of some key opinion-formers in Turkey combines a glimmer of hope of avoiding a ‘train crash’ between Turkey and the EU with deep-seated doubts as to whether the Union will make any serious, positive gesture on Turkey’s future EU membership.

The decision by the EU’s foreign ministers to suspend eight negotiation chapters and not to respond to Turkey’s oral offer of opening a port is likely to confirm that nationalism and Euroscepticism will become unstoppable in Turkey.

A week before the summit, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan shocked his domestic audience by offering to open one port and airport to Greek Cypriot vessels for a trial period of one year - while indicating that he expected the EU to respond and within 12 months to accept traffic from a port and airport in northern Cyprus in addition to moves at UN-level towards a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem. Much of the Turkish response was strongly positive, with the leading business federation, TUSIAD, jumping in to offer support. But the opposition and army, caught on the back foot, let out squeals of rage and indignation.

In Istanbul and Ankara, commentators cautiously suggest that what has been a deepening mood of despair on Europe is turning slightly positive following Erdogan’s offer - though senior diplomats are more doubtful. Hakan Altinay, head of the Soros Open Society Institute in Istanbul, calls Erdogan’s offer "a very atypical Turkish move - flexible and creative". "I didn’t think the AKP had it in them," he adds, referring to Erdogan’s party. But he warns that the credibility of pro-European forces in Turkey is now at stake: "It’s scary that Turkey triggers such a visceral reaction…and with this level of pettiness where we are not even given the light of day [on the membership bid] then we need to wonder if we duped our compatriots…what should we say - that ‘we misled you [the Turkish public] on a path that isn’t there, that we misread the credibility of Europe’?"

Altinay says that the "negative mood seems to be evaporating" with Erdogan’s offer, "but it could come back to haunt us".

Nicole Pope, a French expert on Turkey, agrees that Erdogan’s initiative could be important in changing what she calls "a profound sense of discouragement and disillusion in Turkey".

"It seems to me that the people who feel most embittered are precisely the ones who were most supportive of the EU project in the first place," she adds. "There is an urgent need for some positive, and clear, messages from the EU side."

Other commentators stress the risk Erdogan has taken. Cengiz Aktar, of Bes¸iktas¸ University in Istanbul, says: "The government initiative has created a real momentum here - it’s been taken positively…but if the Commission recommendation now stays at suspending eight [negotiation] chapters, the public reaction will be bad. Some EU gesture is very much needed now and if not the government will be in trouble - Erdogan has taken a huge risk vis-à-vis the elections and so definitely needs some pay-back."

Selma Acuner, professor at Ankara University, agrees: "This offer was a risk for Erdogan." But she warns of the public losing interest in Europe: "Everyone has already become anti-European enough - that’s the main problem, people think nothing is going to happen with the EU. So, yes, now we need to see a positive gesture. Reactionary nationalism is really gaining in strength here."

Altinay is more optimistic that the public reaction will be positive even if the summit suspends eight chapters as long as "there are also positive moves to open new chapters within a month or so and a statement on moving to a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem". He stresses that it is time the EU put pressure on the Greek Cypriots. "The Greek Cypriots are in moral and legal breach of their accession treaty" by not moving to a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem, Altinay says.

Back in the EU capitals, politicians and diplomats have reacted cautiously - with nothing initially in writing from Ankara on Erdogan’s offer. One senior French diplomat says: "We think it’s not new, in which case the Commission recommendations stay on the table…. so the talks will slow down."

A British diplomat is more cautious: "They haven’t been as clear as they need to be…if it [the offer] is heavily conditional, then it won’t work. If they are offering to open a port so that in 12 months they can see if something happens in the other direction, then it’s positive."

The UK diplomat points out that in this case "the summit would have to do something" to respond to Turkey’s positive step, despite France and Germany’s reluctance. "The Turks," the diplomat add, "would have Paris and Berlin pinned down."

But a senior Turkish diplomat responds that the government can’t take the risk of a unilateral step "with no guarantee it will be reciprocated". "Everyone is pressuring us to open a port on an unconditional basis," he says. "Quite clearly, for political reasons we have to receive some kind of confirmation from the EU that they are prepared to reciprocate," he adds, mentioning the regulation on opening trade with Northern Cyprus and "working constructively to find a comprehensive settlement to the Cyprus issue".

"The EU is shying away from this. There is immense frustration here, because everyone is turning a blind eye to our ideas."

The diplomat is deeply pessimistic about the summit outcome. "It seems the impasse will not be broken," he says, adding that EU government leaders will adopt "some sort of ‘punishment’ to Turkey...[which] will be construed here as another act of humiliating Turkey, thanks to a hijacker member state. It will be received with deep resentment and will alienate our public further from our European moves".

"The truth is, the EU lacks leadership," he says. "They cannot foresee what the long-term implications of offending Turkey will have on their immediate neighbourhood. As to the Cyprus issue, the real values, not European, but universal ones, of justice, are being trampled on, and no one can claim that the EU has acted in good faith."

Turkish news outlets are suggesting that Turkey could suspend some political dialogue with the EU, including on immigration and energy, if the summit goes in the wrong direction.

• Kirsty Hughes is a freelance journalist based in London.

On the eve of the 14-15 December EU summit, the mood of some key opinion-formers in Turkey combines a glimmer of hope of avoiding a ‘train crash’ between Turkey and the EU with deep-seated doubts as to whether the Union will make any serious, positive gesture on Turkey’s future EU membership.