Enlargement still on but Croatia faces tougher demands

By Andrew Beatty

Date: 30/06/05

Speaking before the European Parliament last week UK Prime Minister Tony Blair was not in the mood for equivocation. "If we stop enlargement or shut out its natural consequences, it wouldn't, in the end, save one job, keep one firm in business, prevent one delocalisation," he told MEPs.

On the verge of taking up the presidency of the European Council and in the wake of French and Dutch referenda, Blair seems unwavering in his support for further enlargement.

His decision to cast aside a little of the neutral rhetoric that presidencies feel obliged to portray is perhaps an indication that he intends to provide some of the leadership that he and others say Europe now needs.

But despite Blair's bold statements, co-ordinating a response to the question of how wide the EU should go will be one of the trickier challenges that the UK presidency will face.

More cynically, the challenge will be to avoid answering the question definitively at all.

Blair, like Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn, who in a recent offensive suggested that "reports of the death of enlargement have been greatly exaggerated", may be keen on portraying an image of business as usual when it comes to enlargement, but they face a difficult balancing act.

Even adhering to the EU's current commitments to Romania and Bulgaria, which are to join in 2007, while not being seen to ignore some of the sentiments of French and Dutch voters, will be a difficult task.

Talk of making the EU's entrance requirements a little more robust will be tested when the European Commission presents its opinion on Romania and Bulgaria's progress in adopting EU law at the European Council in October.

The burden of proof may well be on the two countries to justify why EU leaders should not invoke so-called safeguard clauses, delaying accession beyond the 2007 target.

Fulfilling commitments to open accession negotiations with Turkey in October, while framing them in terms that are acceptable to Ankara, will also pose a negotiating headache for Blair.

Doubly so if Germany's federal election's return Angela Merkel, long an advocate of something less than full membership for Turkey.

Her election would be a dramatic reiteration of some of the sentiments displayed in the recent constitution votes, just weeks before Turkey is expected to open accession talks. And the task of finding common ground on Turkish membership between London and Berlin could well be made more complicated by the debate on the budget.

Although Merkel, because of her backing for the UK's calls for cuts in agricultural spending, has been described by one UK paper as "Blair's new best friend in Europe", her support is unlikely to come gratis.

Poland, which faces a general election in September and presidential elections in October that could deliver both a more rightist and populist parliament and president, is also unlikely to give Turkey an easy ride.

Yet the Turkish government has already been pushed to accept terms that some Turkish commentators view as belittling.

On the question of opening accession talks with Croatia, Blair may find more difficulties back home.

In the hunt for General Ante Gotovina, who is wanted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague, British intelligence agents in Croatia were exposed. The finger was pointed firmly at Gotovina sympathisers in the Croatian political and security establishment, doing nothing to endear Zagreb to the British government. While generally in favour of enlargement, the UK has been among the hardliners against Croatia.

Article discusses the prospects of EU enlargement after the negative referendums on the European Constitution in France and the Netherlands and the taking over of the EU Presidency by the United Kingdom on 1 July 2005.