Enlargement plans take a pragmatic turn

Date: 20/02/1997

By Mark Turner

SLOVAKIAN politics and Bulgarian economics will face the full force of EU scrutiny next week when the two countries' foreign ministers visit Brussels.

Although both countries hope to join the European Union within a decade, they face substantial obstacles if they are to enter in the first round of enlargement.

The calm of the Council of Ministers' meeting rooms at next Tuesday's (25 February) Association Councils will provide a stark contrast to the demonstrations which plagued the Bulgarian capital Sofia earlier this year, reflecting the anger of a people which feels it has been sold down the river by incompetent economic management.

While EU ministers may have some harsh words for their Slovak counterparts, already under increasing international fire for questionable political practices, they will probably adopt a more supportive tone towards Bulgaria.

Sofia is, to most eyes, a lost cause as far as early Union accession goes. Galloping inflation and a collapsing currency are the clearest signs of an economy in profound crisis.

But following the Socialist government's recent decision to hold elections this April - almost certain to end in victory for the opposition - and its likely acceptance of an International Monetary Fund currency board, the EU will be offering words of support, albeit conditional on further reform.

This will build on the warm welcome extended by European Commission President Jacques Santer when the country's President Peter Stoyanov visited Brussels this month, and promises of EU loans should Bulgaria fall into line with international rules.

In sharp contrast, Slovakia's continued flouting of western democratic standards will come in for harsh criticism from the EU. Originally tipped as top contenders for the first round of eastern enlargement, the Slovaks have fallen way behind their Czech cousins in the Union's list of favourites.

Theirs is not an economic problem. Though still well behind western standards, Slovakia is progressing more successfully than many of its neighbours.

But the persistence of Communist structures, including a secret police which democracy seems to have passed by, is being seen by the West as a serious warning beacon.

“We do not want an isolated Slovakia, but conditions must be fulfilled not only on the economic level, which is very good, but also on the democratic level,” said Rita Suessmuth, the speaker of the German parliament, recently.

Critics acknowledge that elements of Slovak society - which has a strong civil tradition - are fighting the more hard-line posturing of Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar. Its parliament, for example, recently rejected a proposed new penal code which had been strongly criticised by civil rights groups.

But EU ministers are still likely to lambast an unrepentant government which, though furious at the defeat, claims it is no less democratic than other applicants for Union membership.

This kind of attack, which may take Slovakia aback somewhat, reflects a new realism in the Union's relations with eastern Europe.

As with NATO expansion, the debate on EU enlargement is taking a more concrete turn. Although the Commission is keeping quiet until it has prepared its opinion - due this summer - on the central and eastern European countries' (CEECs) applications, Union leaders are making little attempt to hide the names of their favoured applicants.

Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary are top of the list, with Slovenia also a strong candidate.

The three Baltic states, although in many ways seen as good potential members, remain something of a sore point given Russian sensitivities.

Bulgaria and Romania still have a long way to go.

Slovakia, the remaining eastern applicant, could still potentially be a front runner, but only if it were to show clear signs of political reform.

The difficulty is that any cooling in EU-Slovakian relations could have the undesired effect of bolstering those very forces the West seeks to censure.

That is why support is growing for a French idea aimed at achieving the best of both worlds. Paris has called for a standing conference to be established, which would act as a kind of holding room for those CEECs lagging behind.

The idea would be to start negotiations in symbolic terms with all applicant countries at the same time next year, allowing leaders to proclaim success at home. But while intense and substantive talks would be held with leading candidates, the standing conference would only convene from time to time to air issues concerning the rest.

Both Germany and the UK have indicated they are quite interested in the idea, but the proposals have yet to be given any flesh.

“It is probably premature for us to talk about this before the end of the Intergovernmental Conference,” said a diplomat, reflecting a general political desire to put off a full-scale debate for another six months.

The particular difficulty with a standing conference would be the Turkish question, especially in light of the current tensions between Ankara and the EU. Greece would be very unlikely to allow Turkey into the conference and other Union member states would also be cautious, given the ever brighter spotlight being thrown on the country's human rights abuses by the Council of Europe.

But Turkey's isolation from other EU applicants would be taken badly both by Ankara and the US, which is still pushing for Turkish accession to the Union.