Emerging as likely victor, Aznar reaffirms commitment to EMU

Date: 29/02/1996

By Elizabeth Wise

CONFIDENT of becoming the next Spanish prime minister this weekend, José Maria Aznar has already begun to play the role - and his early pronouncements have been directed at Spain's EU partners.

The Union would be making “a serious mistake” if it excluded Spain and Italy from plans for a single currency, Aznar told Le Figaro in an interview this week.

“The process of monetary union and of European construction must involve the five big European nations: Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Spain,” he said.

Throwing his political weight against economists' estimations that Spain and Italy will not be able to meet the strict deficit and inflation criteria needed to join the single currency by 1999, he said keeping Spain in was “not just in Spain's interest but in Europe's too”.

Aznar, who is challenging Prime Minister Felipé Gonzalez for his job in this Sunday's (3 March) elections, said his policy towards Europe would resemble that of Gonzalez, insisting: “The objectives will be the same.”

Expounding a line that could have come from Gonzalez and his Socialist Party, Aznar said he wanted to protect Spanish farming and industry. But then, also in a tone echoing Gonzalez's, he also pledged to be faithful to the goal of European integration.

“Our productive sectors have suffered a lot. We must make a priority of defending their interests,” he said, but stressed this must be done, “while contributing loyally to European construction”.

Aznar, who turned 43 last Sunday, is so close to winning the premiership that he can taste it.

Recent polls have placed him and his centre-right Partido Popular (PP) ahead of Gonzalez's Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) by a comfortable ten percentage points.

The last survey taken on Monday, before polling was banned for the week, gave the PP between 40.5&percent; and 44&percent; of the vote, with the PSOE getting only 30&percent; to 34&percent;.

Aznar has insisted that Sunday's elections are “not about who wins, but by how much”. The PP is seeking an absolute majority (176 seats) in the 350-seat congress which would allow him to rule without having to form a coalition.

Gonzalez, 53 and a beloved figure in Spain, has not yet given up the fight, although he hinted last week that he had resigned himself to the prospect of defeat. “I will give up power, if that is what the people decide, with no feelings of resentment,” he said.

The man who has shepherded Spanish democracy for most of its life managed to pull off a surprise victory in the last election held three years ago, a defeat from which Aznar is still smarting.

But the defensiveness of Gonzalez' electoral campaign this time around underlines the strength of the challenge he is facing.

Gonzalez has warned voters that the PP will dismantle the progress made on social welfare during 13 years of Socialist rule.

But even Gonzalez, if he retained his premiership, would be forced to make some cuts in the generous welfare and pension systems to enable Spain to meet the criteria for economic and monetary union laid down in the Maastricht Treaty, a goal which he has consistently supported.