Emergency services for EU enlargement

If Turkey is headed for a 'train crash' over its bid to join the EU, as Olli Rehn, European commissioner for enlargement and the Finnish member of the Commission suggests, then Finland will have to act as the emergency services.

Later this year, in October or November, the Commission will present its report on Turkey's progress towards membership. Before negotiations can go forward, the EU says Turkey has to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriots. As Ankara says it will not do that before trade is established with northern Cyprus, the Finns will have to find a way out which can save face for both sides. Already diplomats are thinking out loud about the possibilities, but any solution will have to be creative to avoid inflaming public sentiment in Turkey or Cyprus.

If that were not enough, Finland will also have to moderate a heated debate on the EU's ability to absorb new members, when the Union's government leaders meet in December. The key to the debate will be whether 'absorption capacity' is a condition for further enlargement or whether it should simply be taken into consideration.

But before that, in late September, the Commission will present its reports on progress towards joining the EU made by Bulgaria and Romania. On the basis of the reports, member states will have to decide whether to give Bulgaria and Romania the green light to join on 1 January 2007 or delay admission.

If Turkey is headed for a 'train crash' over its bid to join the EU, as Olli Rehn, European commissioner for enlargement and the Finnish member of the Commission suggests, then Finland will have to act as the emergency services.