Economic Reasoning in Merger Cases and How Courts Should Evaluate It

"Merger control demands predictions of likely future competitive effects from transactions as yet unconsummated. But, as physicist Niels Bohr reputedly said: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” To ease the difficulty in predicting future competitive effects, merger assessment relies heavily on tools provided by economics and, more importantly, on economic reasoning. This essay describes common economic applications in merger assessment of the three types of reasoning: abduction, deduction and induction. It also provides guidance to courts for assessing each type of reasoning."