Economic Forecasts, Autumn 2003. 2003-2005 for the euro area, the European Union and the Acceding and Candidate countries

The weak economic performance observed in the euro area and EU economies at the end of 2002 continued throughout the first half of this year. Consequently, for a third consecutive year, growth is likely to disappoint: the average growth rate is expected to be a mere 0.4% in 2003 in the euro area (0.8% in the EU). However, with accommodative macroeconomic policy conditions, continued disinflation, supportive financial conditions, progress in structural reforms, and a reduction in geopolitical uncertainty, the confidence of economic agents is returning and the international environment is improving. A rebound to average growth rates of 1.8% for the euro area and 2% for the EU is projected next year, approaching 2.5% in 2005. Despite this projected recovery, the protracted period of sluggish growth has taken its toll on the performance of the labour market and employment growth is expected to be sluggish, registering only 0.3% in 2004 and a somewhat better 0.8% in 2005.
In the acceding countries, growth remained solid at the end of 2002 and in the beginning of 2003. Average GDP growth is forecast to be 3.1% in 2003, unchanged compared to the Commission Spring Forecasts and representing an acceleration from last year's 2.3%. Stimulated by the recovery in the EU and the prospect of enlargement, average growth in the acceding countries is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in 2004 and to 4.2% in the following year.

• Primary Source

http://ec.europa.eu/comm/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/forecasts_archive_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/comm/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/forecasts_archive_en.htm

---