Dublin fears low turn-out in treaty vote

Date: 14/05/1998

By Rory Watson

APATHY, not hostility, is the enemy which the Irish government fears most as it tries to secure public endorsement of the Amsterdam Treaty.

The country will give its verdict on the latest overhaul of the EU's constitution next Friday (22 May) at the same time as the electorate is asked to vote on the political agreement designed to bring peace and stability to Northern Ireland.

Both decisions will directly affect the political framework in which the Republic operates. One will open the road to closer European integration, while the other will clarify its relations with the north-eastern part of the island.

But a combination of voter weariness in recent months and traditional Irish support for the EU is raising fears of embarrassingly low turn-outs for next week's referenda.

The debate on the Amsterdam Treaty has been made even more sterile by a ruling two years ago in the country's supreme court preventing the government from actively campaigning in favour of the agreement reached by EU leaders last June.

Political parties may campaign, but the state may not. As a result, the government has been forced to hand over the 3.75 million ecu available for an information campaign to an independent referendum commission.

This organisation is using the funds to place advertisements in the media and distribute information leaflets containing arguments for and against the treaty.

Matters are further complicated by the fact that the public has to answer two questions. The first is a straightforward endorsement or rejection of the treaty. The second asks voters whether they will allow the government to exercise its options and discretions under the treaty in the months and years ahead.

This question is designed to prevent any legal challenge if the government decides in future to take part in aspects of the Schengen border-free convention or participate in 'optional' areas of EU activity.

While overall Irish support for the new treaty is not in doubt, there is still concern about its future in Denmark, which holds its own referendum a week later on 28 May. Despite opinion polls giving the 'yes' campaign a 12% lead, politicians privately believe the final result will be far closer.

Meanwhile, Germany last week became the first EU member state to ratify the treaty and is likely to be followed within days by Sweden. The UK aims to complete the process before the Union summit in mid-June, with Austria expected to follow shortly afterwards.

Largely because of its complex federal structure, Belgium is unlikely to ratify the treaty before the autumn, with Portugal, which aims to hold a referendum in October, bringing up the rear.

As a result, EU officials now expect the treaty to come into force by 1 February next year at the latest.

Preview and reports of referendum in Ireland on the Amsterdam Treaty, 22.5.98.